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Photo: Dominic Sayers from London, England
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
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South Africa tour of West Indies · 2024 · Men
7 Aug 2024 · Test
Queen's Park Oval, Port of Spain, Trinidad · Venue photographSouth Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 4
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kraigg Brathwaitecaught · Tristan Stubbs · Keshav Maharaj0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tristan Stubbs · b Keshav Maharaj | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Mikyle Louiscaught · Tristan Stubbs · Kagiso Rabada 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tristan Stubbs · b Kagiso Rabada | 9 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 36.00 |
| Keacy Cartycaught · Wiaan Mulder · Keshav Maharaj 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Wiaan Mulder · b Keshav Maharaj | 31 | 54 | 4 | 0 | 57.41 |
| Alick Athanazecaught · Ryan Rickelton · Keshav Maharaj 9 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ryan Rickelton · b Keshav Maharaj | 92 |
| 116 |
| 9 |
| 0 |
| 79.31 |
| Kavem Hodgecaught · Kyle Verreynne · Keshav Maharaj 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kyle Verreynne · b Keshav Maharaj | 29 | 55 | 4 | 0 | 52.73 |
|---|
 Jason Holdernot out1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 31* | 76 | 1 | 1 | 40.79 |
|---|
 Joshua Da Silvanot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 10 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 6 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 0 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Keshav Maharaj2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 26.2 | 2 | 88 | 4 | 3.34 | 0 | 0 |
 Kagiso Rabada4 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 12.0 | 4 | 38 | 1 | 3.17 | 0 | 0 |
 Lungi Ngidi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Aiden Markram1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 26 | 0 | 3.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Wiaan Mulder0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 3.60 | 0 | 1 |
1-0 (Kraigg Brathwaite, 0.3) · 2-18 (Mikyle Louis, 8.0) · 3-64 (Keacy Carty, 16.5) · 4-127 (Kavem Hodge, 34.1) · 5-192 (Alick Athanaze, 52.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 2 | 1 | 2/1 |
| 3 | 9 | 11/1 |
| 4 | 0 | 11/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 12/1 |
| 6 | 0 | 12/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 18/1 |
| 8 | 0 | 18/2 |
| 9 | 3 | 21/2 |
| 10 | 9 | 30/2 |
| 11 | 1 | 31/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 33/2 |
| 13 | 7 | 40/2 |
| 14 | 1 | 41/2 |
| 15 | 4 | 45/2 |
| 16 | 12 | 57/2 |
| 17 | 7 | 64/3 |
| 18 | 7 | 71/3 |
| 19 | 2 | 73/3 |
| 20 | 5 | 78/3 |
| 21 | 1 | 79/3 |
| 22 | 2 | 81/3 |
| 23 | 5 | 86/3 |
| 24 | 6 | 92/3 |
| 25 | 4 | 96/3 |
| 26 | 5 | 101/3 |
| 27 | 6 | 107/3 |
| 28 | 1 | 108/3 |
| 29 | 3 | 111/3 |
| 30 | 5 | 116/3 |
| 31 | 3 | 119/3 |
| 32 | 0 | 119/3 |
| 33 | 2 | 121/3 |
| 34 | 6 | 127/3 |
| 35 | 0 | 127/4 |
| 36 | 5 | 132/4 |
| 37 | 3 | 135/4 |
| 38 | 3 | 138/4 |
| 39 | 10 | 148/4 |
| 40 | 2 | 150/4 |
| 41 | 1 | 151/4 |
| 42 | 10 | 161/4 |
| 43 | 4 | 165/4 |
| 44 | 3 | 168/4 |
| 45 | 3 | 171/4 |
| 46 | 5 | 176/4 |
| 47 | 3 | 179/4 |
| 48 | 1 | 180/4 |
| 49 | 3 | 183/4 |
| 50 | 1 | 184/4 |
| 51 | 2 | 186/4 |
| 52 | 4 | 190/4 |
| 53 | 2 | 192/5 |
| 54 | 2 | 194/5 |
| 55 | 1 | 195/5 |
| 56 | 0 | 195/5 |
| 57 | 6 | 201/5 |
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jason Holder: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Kemar Roach: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Lungi Ngidi: Starc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kraigg Brathwaite: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kagiso Rabada: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joshua Da Silva: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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