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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024 · Men
17 Aug 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Netherlands more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Netherlands started on 75%; Netherlands batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Johnsoncaught · Musa Ahmed · Vivian Kingma 6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Musa Ahmed · b Vivian Kingma | 32 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 114.29 |
| Dilpreet Bajwabowled · Vivian Kingma 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Vivian Kingma | 20 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 80.00 |
| Pargat Singhcaught · Noah Croes · Paul van Meekeren 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Noah Croes · b Paul van Meekeren | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 83.33 |
| Harsh Thakercaught · Scott Edwards · Paul van Meekeren 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Scott Edwards · b Paul van Meekeren | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Nicholas Kirtoncaught · Scott Edwards · Vivian Kingma 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Scott Edwards · b Vivian Kingma | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Netherlands's chances ranged from 20% to 100% during the match (Canada: 0% to 80%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Shreyas Movvanot out 4 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| not out |
| 47* |
| 72 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 65.28 |
| Ravinderpal Singhcaught · Shariz Ahmad · Paul van Meekeren 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shariz Ahmad · b Paul van Meekeren | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 12.50 |
|---|
 Saad Bin Zafarlbw · Aryan Dutt0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Aryan Dutt | 12 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 52.17 |
|---|
| Dillon Heyligerlbw · Shariz Ahmad 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Shariz Ahmad | 14 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 70.00 |
|---|
| Kaleem Sanacaught · Max O'Dowd · Paul van Meekeren 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Max O'Dowd · b Paul van Meekeren | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 57.14 |
|---|
| Junaid Siddiquilbw · Paul van Meekeren 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Paul van Meekeren | 5 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 26.32 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 15 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivian Kingma1 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 31 | 3 | 4.43 | 4 | 0 |
| Kyle Klein0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 8.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Paul van Meekeren1 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.4 | 1 | 28 | 5 | 2.90 | 4 | 0 |
| Aryan Dutt1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 1.83 | 1 | 0 |
| Vikramjit Singh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 5.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Michael Levitt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Shariz Ahmad0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 5.75 | 1 | 0 |
1-59 (Aaron Johnson, 8.1) · 2-66 (Pargat Singh, 9.4) · 3-66 (Dilpreet Bajwa, 10.1) · 4-67 (Nicholas Kirton, 10.4) · 5-67 (Harsh Thaker, 11.1) · 6-70 (Ravinderpal Singh, 13.2) · 7-94 (Saad Bin Zafar, 21.2) · 8-122 (Dillon Heyliger, 28.3) · 9-127 (Kaleem Sana, 29.5) · 10-157 (Junaid Siddiqui, 35.4)
Recorded target: 221 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 15 | 19/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 28/0 |
| 4 | 10 | 38/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 39/0 |
| 6 | 7 | 46/0 |
| 7 | 9 | 55/0 |
| 8 | 4 | 59/0 |
| 9 | 6 | 65/1 |
| 10 | 1 | 66/2 |
| 11 | 1 | 67/4 |
| 12 | 1 | 68/5 |
| 13 | 2 | 70/5 |
| 14 | 1 | 71/6 |
| 15 | 6 | 77/6 |
| 16 | 6 | 83/6 |
| 17 | 2 | 85/6 |
| 18 | 1 | 86/6 |
| 19 | 2 | 88/6 |
| 20 | 2 | 90/6 |
| 21 | 4 | 94/6 |
| 22 | 0 | 94/7 |
| 23 | 11 | 105/7 |
| 24 | 2 | 107/7 |
| 25 | 5 | 112/7 |
| 26 | 4 | 116/7 |
| 27 | 2 | 118/7 |
| 28 | 2 | 120/7 |
| 29 | 2 | 122/8 |
| 30 | 5 | 127/9 |
| 31 | 6 | 133/9 |
| 32 | 2 | 135/9 |
| 33 | 8 | 143/9 |
| 34 | 5 | 148/9 |
| 35 | 7 | 155/9 |
| 36 | 2 | 157/10 |
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
