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Photo: Mnnngchris at English Wikipedia
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Vitality Blast Men · 2026 · Men
1 Jul 2026 · T20
The County Ground, Derby · Venue photographRecorded result
Lancashire started on 54%; Lancashire batted first.
Lancashire's chances ranged from 31% to 88% during the match (Derbyshire: 12% to 69%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
On 1 Jul 2026, Lancashire played Derbyshire at The County Ground, Derby. Recorded result: Lancashire won by 4 runs.
Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.