KentversusGloucestershire

30 May 2025 · T20

County Ground, Bristol · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Kent won by 4 runs

Kent20.0 overs208/3 Gloucestershire20.0 overs204/7 County Ground, Bristol ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Kent started on 35%; Kent batted first.

Kent’s chance of winning (%) · Gloucestershire is the rest

Kent's chances ranged from 33% to 98% during the match (Gloucestershire: 2% to 67%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.4: FJ Klaassen to CT Bancroft, CT Bancroft out. Kent up from 70% to 80%.
2nd inns 13.3: NN Gilchrist to OJ Price, OJ Price out. Kent up from 79% to 89%.
2nd inns 16.4: TS Rogers to DJM Short, DJM Short out. Kent up from 83% to 92%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Gloucestershire chose to field
match referees: IL Herbert
umpires: BJ Debenham, RJ Warren

Match history & source

On 30 May 2025, Kent played Gloucestershire at County Ground, Bristol. Recorded result: Kent won by 4 runs.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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