Brisbane HeatversusMelbourne Stars

1 Jan 2025 · T20

Brisbane Cricket Ground · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Melbourne Stars won by 5 wickets

Brisbane Heat20.0 overs149/7 Melbourne Stars18.1 overs153/5 Brisbane Cricket Ground ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Brisbane Heat started on 66%; Brisbane Heat batted first.

Brisbane Heat’s chance of winning (%) · Melbourne Stars is the rest

Brisbane Heat's chances ranged from 0% to 83% during the match (Melbourne Stars: 17% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.2: MT Steketee to T Banton, T Banton out. Melbourne Stars up from 37% to 49%.
2nd inns 0.1: XC Bartlett to BM Duckett, BM Duckett out. Brisbane Heat up from 47% to 62%.
2nd inns 2.6: XC Bartlett to SB Harper, SB Harper out. Brisbane Heat up from 55% to 70%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Melbourne Stars chose to field
Player of the match: Marcus Stoinis
match referees: Kepler Wessels
reserve umpires: SE Dionysius
tv umpires: GJ Davidson
umpires: BC Treloar, DM Koch

Match history & source

On 1 Jan 2025, Brisbane Heat played Melbourne Stars at Brisbane Cricket Ground. Recorded result: Melbourne Stars won by 5 wickets.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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