Birmingham BearsversusLancashire

9 Jul 2025 · T20

Edgbaston · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Birmingham Bears won by 36 runs

Birmingham Bears20.0 overs203/9 Lancashire18.1 overs167/10 Edgbaston ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Birmingham Bears started on 49%; Birmingham Bears batted first.

Birmingham Bears’s chance of winning (%) · Lancashire is the rest

Birmingham Bears's chances ranged from 36% to 100% during the match (Lancashire: 0% to 64%).

Biggest swings

0.6: L Wood to AL Davies, AL Davies out. Lancashire up from 45% to 56%.
1.5: JM Anderson to TWM Latham, TWM Latham out. Lancashire up from 51% to 62%.
5.2: L Wood to DR Mousley, DR Mousley out. Lancashire up from 36% to 47%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Birmingham Bears203/9 Lancashire167/10

Innings 1