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Sri Lanka tour of England · 2024 · Men
29 Aug 2024 · Test
Lord's · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 4
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nishan Madushkacaught · Joe Root · Gus Atkinson 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Joe Root · b Gus Atkinson | 13 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 52.00 |
 Dimuth Karunaratnecaught · Jamie Smith · Oli Stone7 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Smith · b Oli Stone | 55 | 129 | 7 | 0 | 42.64 |
| Pathum Nissankacaught · Joe Root · Oli Stone 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Joe Root · b Oli Stone | 14 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 58.33 |
| Prabath Jayasuriyacaught · Harry Brook · Chris Woakes 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Chris Woakes | 4 | 41 | 0 | 0 |
| 9.76 |
 Angelo Mathewscaught · Chris Woakes · Shoaib Bashir3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chris Woakes · b Shoaib Bashir | 36 | 91 | 3 | 0 | 39.56 |
|---|
 Dinesh Chandimalcaught · Daniel Lawrence · Gus Atkinson11 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Daniel Lawrence · b Gus Atkinson | 58 | 62 | 11 | 0 | 93.55 |
|---|
| Dhananjaya de Silvabowled · Gus Atkinson 7 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Gus Atkinson | 50 | 71 | 7 | 0 | 70.42 |
|---|
| Kamindu Mendiscaught · Ben Duckett · Gus Atkinson 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ben Duckett · b Gus Atkinson | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Milan Priyanathcaught · Jamie Smith · Gus Atkinson 7 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Smith · b Gus Atkinson | 43 | 56 | 7 | 0 | 76.79 |
|---|
| Lahiru Kumaracaught · Oli Stone · Chris Woakes 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Oli Stone · b Chris Woakes | 10 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 76.92 |
|---|
| Asitha Fernandonot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 0 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chris Woakes8 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 19.4 | 8 | 46 | 2 | 2.34 | 0 | 0 |
| Gus Atkinson4 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 16.0 | 4 | 62 | 5 | 3.88 | 0 | 0 |
| Shoaib Bashir1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 23.0 | 1 | 78 | 1 | 3.39 | 0 | 0 |
 Joe Root1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 2.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Matthew Potts2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 11.0 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 3.09 | 0 | 0 |
 Oli Stone0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 12.0 | 0 | 56 | 2 | 4.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Daniel Lawrence0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-19 (Nishan Madushka, 7.1) · 2-43 (Pathum Nissanka, 14.0) · 3-60 (Prabath Jayasuriya, 26.2) · 4-115 (Dimuth Karunaratne, 46.4) · 5-174 (Angelo Mathews, 58.5) · 6-192 (Dinesh Chandimal, 65.1) · 7-200 (Kamindu Mendis, 67.2) · 8-273 (Dhananjaya de Silva, 83.1) · 9-288 (Milan Priyanath, 85.3) · 10-292 (Lahiru Kumara, 86.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 9/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 14/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 15/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 17/0 |
| 7 | 2 | 19/0 |
| 8 | 2 | 21/1 |
| 9 | 3 | 24/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 26/1 |
| 11 | 4 | 30/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 34/1 |
| 13 | 8 | 42/1 |
| 14 | 1 | 43/2 |
| 15 | 1 | 44/2 |
| 16 | 1 | 45/2 |
| 17 | 4 | 49/2 |
| 18 | 1 | 50/2 |
| 19 | 0 | 50/2 |
| 20 | 3 | 53/2 |
| 21 | 2 | 55/2 |
| 22 | 0 | 55/2 |
| 23 | 0 | 55/2 |
| 24 | 5 | 60/2 |
| 25 | 0 | 60/2 |
| 26 | 0 | 60/2 |
| 27 | 1 | 61/3 |
| 28 | 0 | 61/3 |
| 29 | 0 | 61/3 |
| 30 | 14 | 75/3 |
| 31 | 2 | 77/3 |
| 32 | 2 | 79/3 |
| 33 | 1 | 80/3 |
| 34 | 2 | 82/3 |
| 35 | 9 | 91/3 |
| 36 | 4 | 95/3 |
| 37 | 2 | 97/3 |
| 38 | 1 | 98/3 |
| 39 | 0 | 98/3 |
| 40 | 2 | 100/3 |
| 41 | 1 | 101/3 |
| 42 | 1 | 102/3 |
| 43 | 1 | 103/3 |
| 44 | 6 | 109/3 |
| 45 | 2 | 111/3 |
| 46 | 3 | 114/3 |
| 47 | 6 | 120/4 |
| 48 | 5 | 125/4 |
| 49 | 8 | 133/4 |
| 50 | 3 | 136/4 |
| 51 | 2 | 138/4 |
| 52 | 9 | 147/4 |
| 53 | 4 | 151/4 |
| 54 | 0 | 151/4 |
| 55 | 12 | 163/4 |
| 56 | 0 | 163/4 |
| 57 | 3 | 166/4 |
| 58 | 8 | 174/4 |
| 59 | 0 | 174/5 |
| 60 | 4 | 178/5 |
| 61 | 4 | 182/5 |
| 62 | 0 | 182/5 |
| 63 | 1 | 183/5 |
| 64 | 4 | 187/5 |
| 65 | 5 | 192/5 |
| 66 | 3 | 195/6 |
| 67 | 5 | 200/6 |
| 68 | 0 | 200/7 |
| 69 | 3 | 203/7 |
| 70 | 2 | 205/7 |
| 71 | 8 | 213/7 |
| 72 | 4 | 217/7 |
| 73 | 13 | 230/7 |
| 74 | 0 | 230/7 |
| 75 | 1 | 231/7 |
| 76 | 9 | 240/7 |
| 77 | 9 | 249/7 |
| 78 | 3 | 252/7 |
| 79 | 6 | 258/7 |
| 80 | 2 | 260/7 |
| 81 | 5 | 265/7 |
| 82 | 8 | 273/7 |
| 83 | 0 | 273/7 |
| 84 | 3 | 276/8 |
| 85 | 4 | 280/8 |
| 86 | 8 | 288/9 |
| 87 | 4 | 292/10 |
Daniel Lawrence: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Angelo Mathews: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matthew Potts: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Oli Stone: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dinesh Chandimal: Amal316 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chris Woakes: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dimuth Karunaratne: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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