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Sri Lanka tour of England · 2024 · Men
29 Aug 2024 · Test
Lord's · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 3
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ben Duckettcaught · Angelo Mathews · Milan Priyanath2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Angelo Mathews · b Milan Priyanath | 24 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 63.16 |
 Daniel Lawrencecaught · Nishan Madushka · Lahiru Kumara1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nishan Madushka · b Lahiru Kumara | 7 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 58.33 |
 Ollie Popecaught · Prabath Jayasuriya · Asitha Fernando1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Prabath Jayasuriya · b Asitha Fernando | 17 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 44.74 |
 Joe Rootcaught · Kamindu Mendis · Lahiru Kumara10 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Lahiru Kumara |
| 103 |
| 121 |
| 10 |
| 0 |
| 85.12 |
 Harry Brookcaught · Nishan Madushka · Prabath Jayasuriya4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Nishan Madushka · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 37 | 36 | 4 | 1 | 102.78 |
|---|
 Jamie Smithlbw · Prabath Jayasuriya3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 26 | 34 | 3 | 0 | 76.47 |
|---|
 Chris Woakescaught · Pathum Nissanka · Milan Priyanath1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Pathum Nissanka · b Milan Priyanath | 5 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Gus Atkinsoncaught · Lahiru Kumara · Asitha Fernando 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lahiru Kumara · b Asitha Fernando | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 116.67 |
|---|
 Matthew Pottscaught · Dinesh Chandimal · Asitha Fernando0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dinesh Chandimal · b Asitha Fernando | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 22.22 |
|---|
 Oli Stonecaught · Pathum Nissanka · Lahiru Kumara1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Pathum Nissanka · b Lahiru Kumara | 7 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 43.75 |
|---|
| Shoaib Bashirnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 2 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asitha Fernando0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 13.0 | 0 | 52 | 3 | 4.00 | 2 | 1 |
| Lahiru Kumara0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 12.3 | 0 | 53 | 3 | 4.24 | 0 | 0 |
| Milan Priyanath1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 36 | 2 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Prabath Jayasuriya2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 20.0 | 2 | 105 | 2 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
1-22 (Daniel Lawrence, 5.1) · 2-36 (Ben Duckett, 10.3) · 3-69 (Ollie Pope, 18.1) · 4-127 (Harry Brook, 27.4) · 5-171 (Jamie Smith, 37.1) · 6-196 (Chris Woakes, 40.5) · 7-221 (Gus Atkinson, 44.4) · 8-227 (Matthew Potts, 47.0) · 9-250 (Oli Stone, 53.0) · 10-251 (Joe Root, 54.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 15/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 16/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 22/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 23/1 |
| 7 | 2 | 25/1 |
| 8 | 1 | 26/1 |
| 9 | 3 | 29/1 |
| 10 | 7 | 36/1 |
| 11 | 2 | 38/2 |
| 12 | 7 | 45/2 |
| 13 | 0 | 45/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 47/2 |
| 15 | 8 | 55/2 |
| 16 | 3 | 58/2 |
| 17 | 1 | 59/2 |
| 18 | 10 | 69/2 |
| 19 | 3 | 72/3 |
| 20 | 6 | 78/3 |
| 21 | 2 | 80/3 |
| 22 | 11 | 91/3 |
| 23 | 11 | 102/3 |
| 24 | 2 | 104/3 |
| 25 | 6 | 110/3 |
| 26 | 10 | 120/3 |
| 27 | 6 | 126/3 |
| 28 | 2 | 128/4 |
| 29 | 6 | 134/4 |
| 30 | 3 | 137/4 |
| 31 | 3 | 140/4 |
| 32 | 9 | 149/4 |
| 33 | 5 | 154/4 |
| 34 | 5 | 159/4 |
| 35 | 4 | 163/4 |
| 36 | 3 | 166/4 |
| 37 | 5 | 171/4 |
| 38 | 0 | 171/5 |
| 39 | 7 | 178/5 |
| 40 | 13 | 191/5 |
| 41 | 9 | 200/6 |
| 42 | 4 | 204/6 |
| 43 | 4 | 208/6 |
| 44 | 6 | 214/6 |
| 45 | 7 | 221/7 |
| 46 | 4 | 225/7 |
| 47 | 2 | 227/8 |
| 48 | 5 | 232/8 |
| 49 | 2 | 234/8 |
| 50 | 5 | 239/8 |
| 51 | 2 | 241/8 |
| 52 | 4 | 245/8 |
| 53 | 5 | 250/9 |
| 54 | 0 | 250/9 |
| 55 | 1 | 251/10 |
Daniel Lawrence: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Angelo Mathews: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matthew Potts: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Oli Stone: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dinesh Chandimal: Amal316 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chris Woakes: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dimuth Karunaratne: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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