Sri LankaversusWest Indies

25 Jun 2026 · Test

Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, North Sound, Antigua · Venue photograph

Recorded result

West Indies won by 217 runs

Sri Lanka71.5 overs308/10 West Indies160.5 overs626/9d Sri Lanka31.2 overs101/10 Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, North Sound, Antigua ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sri Lanka more likely to win

43%Sri Lanka25%Draw32%West Indies

Why

On results in Tests so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than West Indies (1,501 vs 1,363 on our results rating)
West Indies are playing at home in Antigua and Barbuda
4 of the last 10 Tests at Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, North Sound, Antigua ended in a draw

Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.