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Photo: RIDHVAN SHARMA
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Bangladesh tour of Zimbabwe · 2026 · Men
6 Jul 2026 · ODI
Harare Sports Club · Venue photographRecorded result
Bangladesh more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Zimbabwe started on 28%; Zimbabwe batted first.
Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 1% to 94% during the match (Bangladesh: 6% to 99%).
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanzid Hasancaught · Newman Nyamhuri · Blessing Muzarabani 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Newman Nyamhuri · b Blessing Muzarabani | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
 Soumya Sarkarcaught · Newman Nyamhuri · Richard Ngarava0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Newman Nyamhuri · b Richard Ngarava | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
 Najmul Hossain Shantocaught · Ben Curran · Blessing Muzarabani0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ben Curran · b Blessing Muzarabani | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
 Tawhid Hridoycaught · Ben Curran · Newman Nyamhuri1 fours · 0 sixes |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Ben Curran · b Newman Nyamhuri |
| 25 |
| 58 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 43.10 |
| Nurul Hasanlbw · Brad Evans 3 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Brad Evans | 31 | 44 | 3 | 1 | 70.45 |
|---|
 Mosaddek Hossain Saikatcaught · Clive Madande · Newman Nyamhuri0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Clive Madande · b Newman Nyamhuri | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
 Mehedi Hasancaught · Brian Bennett · Richard Ngarava1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brian Bennett · b Richard Ngarava | 10 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 55.56 |
|---|
 Rishad Hossaincaught · Sikandar Raza · Brad Evans0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sikandar Raza · b Brad Evans | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 30.00 |
|---|
 Taskin Ahmedcaught · Craig Ervine · Brad Evans1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Craig Ervine · b Brad Evans | 5 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Mustafizur Rahmancaught · Blessing Muzarabani · Richard Ngarava1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Blessing Muzarabani · b Richard Ngarava | 5 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 35.71 |
|---|
 Nahid Rananot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 15 | 1 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Ngarava1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.1 | 1 | 31 | 3 | 4.33 | 2 | 0 |
| Blessing Muzarabani1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 24 | 2 | 2.40 | 1 | 0 |
| Brad Evans2 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 34 | 3 | 3.40 | 3 | 0 |
| Newman Nyamhuri2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 2 | 22 | 2 | 3.67 | 1 | 0 |
1-11 (Tanzid Hasan, 1.4) · 2-17 (Najmul Hossain Shanto, 3.4) · 3-17 (Soumya Sarkar, 4.1) · 4-66 (Tawhid Hridoy, 18.5) · 5-74 (Mosaddek Hossain Saikat, 20.2) · 6-89 (Mehedi Hasan, 24.0) · 7-98 (Nurul Hasan, 25.5) · 8-99 (Rishad Hossain, 27.1) · 9-105 (Taskin Ahmed, 29.3) · 10-116 (Mustafizur Rahman, 33.1)
Recorded target: 142 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 11/1 |
| 3 | 4 | 15/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 17/2 |
| 5 | 2 | 19/3 |
| 6 | 2 | 21/3 |
| 7 | 0 | 21/3 |
| 8 | 2 | 23/3 |
| 9 | 1 | 24/3 |
| 10 | 8 | 32/3 |
| 11 | 0 | 32/3 |
| 12 | 0 | 32/3 |
| 13 | 1 | 33/3 |
| 14 | 3 | 36/3 |
| 15 | 4 | 40/3 |
| 16 | 11 | 51/3 |
| 17 | 7 | 58/3 |
| 18 | 2 | 60/3 |
| 19 | 6 | 66/4 |
| 20 | 8 | 74/4 |
| 21 | 0 | 74/5 |
| 22 | 5 | 79/5 |
| 23 | 5 | 84/5 |
| 24 | 5 | 89/6 |
| 25 | 6 | 95/6 |
| 26 | 3 | 98/7 |
| 27 | 1 | 99/7 |
| 28 | 0 | 99/8 |
| 29 | 2 | 101/8 |
| 30 | 4 | 105/9 |
| 31 | 6 | 111/9 |
| 32 | 5 | 116/9 |
| 33 | 0 | 116/9 |
| 34 | 0 | 116/10 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Rishad Hossain: Press Information Department · Public domain
Nahid Rana: Press Information Department · Public domain
Craig Ervine: TheCricketer · CC BY-SA 4.0
Taskin Ahmed: Mahbub Ali Zaki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Clive Madande: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Soumya Sarkar: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mustafizur Rahman: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mosaddek Hossain Saikat: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mehedi Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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