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Photo: RIDHVAN SHARMA
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Bangladesh tour of Zimbabwe · 2026 · Men
6 Jul 2026 · ODI
Harare Sports Club · Venue photographRecorded result
Bangladesh more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Zimbabwe started on 28%; Zimbabwe batted first.
Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 1% to 94% during the match (Bangladesh: 6% to 99%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Bennettcaught · Mosaddek Hossain Saikat · Taskin Ahmed 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mosaddek Hossain Saikat · b Taskin Ahmed | 17 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 70.83 |
| Ben Curranrun out · Mehedi Hasan · Taskin Ahmed 2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Mehedi Hasan | 18 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 94.74 |
| Innocent Kaiacaught · Nurul Hasan · Nahid Rana 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Nurul Hasan · b Nahid Rana | 26 | 39 | 1 | 1 | 66.67 |
 Craig Ervinebowled · Taskin Ahmed0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Taskin Ahmed | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Nurul Hasan · b Nahid Rana |
| 1 |
| 12 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 8.33 |
| Wesley Madheverecaught · Najmul Hossain Shanto · Nahid Rana 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Najmul Hossain Shanto · b Nahid Rana | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Clive Madandecaught · Mosaddek Hossain Saikat · Nahid Rana0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mosaddek Hossain Saikat · b Nahid Rana | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
| Brad Evanslbw · Nahid Rana 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nahid Rana | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
| Newman Nyamhuricaught · Tanzid Hasan · Mehedi Hasan 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tanzid Hasan · b Mehedi Hasan | 33 | 51 | 5 | 0 | 64.71 |
|---|
| Richard Ngaravabowled · Nahid Rana 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nahid Rana | 27 | 41 | 3 | 0 | 65.85 |
|---|
| Blessing Muzarabaninot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 10 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 6 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Taskin Ahmed1 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 32 | 2 | 4.57 | 0 | 1 |
 Mustafizur Rahman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 3.17 | 0 | 0 |
 Nahid Rana2 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 21 | 6 | 2.10 | 4 | 0 |
 Soumya Sarkar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 5.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 5.40 | 1 | 0 |
 Mehedi Hasan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.4 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 3.88 | 1 | 0 |
1-36 (Ben Curran, 6.4) · 2-36 (Brian Bennett, 7.0) · 3-38 (Craig Ervine, 8.1) · 4-45 (Sikandar Raza, 13.1) · 5-47 (Wesley Madhevere, 15.3) · 6-51 (Clive Madande, 17.4) · 7-69 (Innocent Kaia, 19.1) · 8-70 (Brad Evans, 19.5) · 9-133 (Richard Ngarava, 33.2) · 10-141 (Newman Nyamhuri, 36.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 14/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 18/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 24/0 |
| 6 | 3 | 27/0 |
| 7 | 9 | 36/2 |
| 8 | 2 | 38/2 |
| 9 | 0 | 38/3 |
| 10 | 1 | 39/3 |
| 11 | 1 | 40/3 |
| 12 | 4 | 44/3 |
| 13 | 1 | 45/3 |
| 14 | 0 | 45/4 |
| 15 | 1 | 46/4 |
| 16 | 3 | 49/5 |
| 17 | 1 | 50/5 |
| 18 | 4 | 54/6 |
| 19 | 15 | 69/6 |
| 20 | 1 | 70/8 |
| 21 | 3 | 73/8 |
| 22 | 3 | 76/8 |
| 23 | 1 | 77/8 |
| 24 | 4 | 81/8 |
| 25 | 10 | 91/8 |
| 26 | 7 | 98/8 |
| 27 | 2 | 100/8 |
| 28 | 5 | 105/8 |
| 29 | 9 | 114/8 |
| 30 | 10 | 124/8 |
| 31 | 4 | 128/8 |
| 32 | 3 | 131/8 |
| 33 | 1 | 132/8 |
| 34 | 2 | 134/9 |
| 35 | 5 | 139/9 |
| 36 | 1 | 140/9 |
| 37 | 1 | 141/10 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Rishad Hossain: Press Information Department · Public domain
Nahid Rana: Press Information Department · Public domain
Craig Ervine: TheCricketer · CC BY-SA 4.0
Taskin Ahmed: Mahbub Ali Zaki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Clive Madande: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Soumya Sarkar: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mustafizur Rahman: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mosaddek Hossain Saikat: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mehedi Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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