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India tour of Australia · 2024/25 · Men
26 Dec 2024 · Test
Melbourne Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 4
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Yashasvi Jaiswalcaught · Alex Carey · Pat Cummins8 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Pat Cummins | 84 | 208 | 8 | 0 | 40.38 |
 Rohit Sharmacaught · Mitchell Marsh · Pat Cummins0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mitchell Marsh · b Pat Cummins | 9 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 22.50 |
 KL Rahulcaught · Usman Khawaja · Pat Cummins0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Usman Khawaja · b Pat Cummins | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| caught · Usman Khawaja · b Mitchell Starc |
| 5 |
| 29 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 17.24 |
 Rishabh Pantcaught · Mitchell Marsh · Travis Head2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mitchell Marsh · b Travis Head | 30 | 104 | 2 | 0 | 28.85 |
|---|
 Ravindra Jadejacaught · Alex Carey · Scott Boland0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Scott Boland | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
|---|
 Nitish Kumar Reddycaught · Steve Smith · Nathan Lyon0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Steve Smith · b Nathan Lyon | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
 Washington Sundarnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 45 | 0 | 0 | 11.11 |
|---|
| Akash Deepcaught · Travis Head · Scott Boland 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Travis Head · b Scott Boland | 7 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 41.18 |
|---|
 Jasprit Bumrahcaught · Steve Smith · Scott Boland0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Steve Smith · b Scott Boland | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Mohammed Sirajlbw · Nathan Lyon0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nathan Lyon | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 5 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 0 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Starc8 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 16.0 | 8 | 25 | 1 | 1.56 | 0 | 0 |
 Pat Cummins5 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 18.0 | 5 | 28 | 3 | 1.56 | 0 | 1 |
 Scott Boland7 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 16.0 | 7 | 39 | 3 | 2.44 | 0 | 1 |
 Mitchell Marsh2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Nathan Lyon6 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 20.1 | 6 | 37 | 2 | 1.83 | 0 | 0 |
 Travis Head0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 2.80 | 0 | 0 |
 Marnus Labuschagne1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-25 (Rohit Sharma, 16.1) · 2-25 (KL Rahul, 17.0) · 3-33 (Virat Kohli, 26.1) · 4-121 (Rishabh Pant, 58.4) · 5-127 (Ravindra Jadeja, 62.2) · 6-130 (Nitish Kumar Reddy, 63.2) · 7-140 (Yashasvi Jaiswal, 70.5) · 8-150 (Akash Deep, 76.1) · 9-154 (Jasprit Bumrah, 78.3) · 10-155 (Mohammed Siraj, 79.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 2/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 2/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 2/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 6/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 8/0 |
| 7 | 4 | 12/0 |
| 8 | 0 | 12/0 |
| 9 | 4 | 16/0 |
| 10 | 1 | 17/0 |
| 11 | 2 | 19/0 |
| 12 | 1 | 20/0 |
| 13 | 1 | 21/0 |
| 14 | 0 | 21/0 |
| 15 | 1 | 22/0 |
| 16 | 3 | 25/0 |
| 17 | 0 | 25/2 |
| 18 | 0 | 25/2 |
| 19 | 0 | 25/2 |
| 20 | 0 | 25/2 |
| 21 | 3 | 28/2 |
| 22 | 2 | 30/2 |
| 23 | 0 | 30/2 |
| 24 | 1 | 31/2 |
| 25 | 0 | 31/2 |
| 26 | 2 | 33/2 |
| 27 | 0 | 33/3 |
| 28 | 8 | 41/3 |
| 29 | 0 | 41/3 |
| 30 | 9 | 50/3 |
| 31 | 4 | 54/3 |
| 32 | 2 | 56/3 |
| 33 | 4 | 60/3 |
| 34 | 5 | 65/3 |
| 35 | 0 | 65/3 |
| 36 | 6 | 71/3 |
| 37 | 6 | 77/3 |
| 38 | 0 | 77/3 |
| 39 | 1 | 78/3 |
| 40 | 8 | 86/3 |
| 41 | 1 | 87/3 |
| 42 | 5 | 92/3 |
| 43 | 1 | 93/3 |
| 44 | 2 | 95/3 |
| 45 | 0 | 95/3 |
| 46 | 2 | 97/3 |
| 47 | 0 | 97/3 |
| 48 | 2 | 99/3 |
| 49 | 3 | 102/3 |
| 50 | 2 | 104/3 |
| 51 | 2 | 106/3 |
| 52 | 1 | 107/3 |
| 53 | 5 | 112/3 |
| 54 | 0 | 112/3 |
| 55 | 3 | 115/3 |
| 56 | 1 | 116/3 |
| 57 | 3 | 119/3 |
| 58 | 1 | 120/3 |
| 59 | 1 | 121/4 |
| 60 | 1 | 122/4 |
| 61 | 4 | 126/4 |
| 62 | 0 | 126/4 |
| 63 | 4 | 130/5 |
| 64 | 2 | 132/6 |
| 65 | 0 | 132/6 |
| 66 | 0 | 132/6 |
| 67 | 6 | 138/6 |
| 68 | 0 | 138/6 |
| 69 | 0 | 138/6 |
| 70 | 0 | 138/6 |
| 71 | 3 | 141/7 |
| 72 | 1 | 142/7 |
| 73 | 1 | 143/7 |
| 74 | 0 | 143/7 |
| 75 | 5 | 148/7 |
| 76 | 2 | 150/7 |
| 77 | 4 | 154/8 |
| 78 | 0 | 154/8 |
| 79 | 1 | 155/9 |
| 80 | 0 | 155/10 |
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Jasprit Bumrah: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Washington Sundar: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Yashasvi Jaiswal: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Nitish Kumar Reddy: WikiWanderer261 · CC0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Nathan Lyon: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sam Konstas: WikiWanderer261 · CC0
Rishabh Pant: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammed Siraj: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Pat Cummins: SirWellsy99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Scott Boland: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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