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India tour of Australia · 2024/25 · Men
26 Dec 2024 · Test
Melbourne Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 3
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sam Konstasbowled · Jasprit Bumrah1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jasprit Bumrah | 8 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 44.44 |
 Usman Khawajabowled · Mohammed Siraj2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mohammed Siraj | 21 | 65 | 2 | 0 | 32.31 |
 Marnus Labuschagnelbw · Mohammed Siraj3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Mohammed Siraj | 70 | 139 | 3 | 0 | 50.36 |
 |
| caught · Rishabh Pant · b Mohammed Siraj |
| 13 |
| 41 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 31.71 |
 Travis Headcaught · Nitish Kumar Reddy · Jasprit Bumrah0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nitish Kumar Reddy · b Jasprit Bumrah | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Mitchell Marshcaught · Rishabh Pant · Jasprit Bumrah0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rishabh Pant · b Jasprit Bumrah | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Alex Careybowled · Jasprit Bumrah0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jasprit Bumrah | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
 Pat Cumminscaught · Rohit Sharma · Ravindra Jadeja4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rohit Sharma · b Ravindra Jadeja | 41 | 90 | 4 | 0 | 45.56 |
|---|
 Mitchell Starcrun out · Rishabh Pant, Nitish Kumar Reddy · Jasprit Bumrah0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Rishabh Pant, Nitish Kumar Reddy | 5 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 38.46 |
|---|
 Nathan Lyonbowled · Jasprit Bumrah5 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jasprit Bumrah | 41 | 55 | 5 | 0 | 74.55 |
|---|
 Scott Bolandnot out2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 15* | 74 | 2 | 0 | 20.27 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 10 · wides: 1 · noballs: 6 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jasprit Bumrah7 maidens · 0 wides · 4 no-balls | 24.4 | 7 | 57 | 5 | 2.31 | 0 | 4 |
| Akash Deep4 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 17.0 | 4 | 53 | 0 | 3.12 | 0 | 1 |
 Mohammed Siraj4 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 23.0 | 4 | 70 | 3 | 3.04 | 1 | 0 |
 Ravindra Jadeja2 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 14.0 | 2 | 33 | 1 | 2.36 | 0 | 1 |
 Nitish Kumar Reddy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Washington Sundar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-20 (Sam Konstas, 6.3) · 2-43 (Usman Khawaja, 18.5) · 3-80 (Steve Smith, 32.3) · 4-85 (Travis Head, 33.2) · 5-85 (Mitchell Marsh, 34.0) · 6-91 (Alex Carey, 36.0) · 7-148 (Marnus Labuschagne, 55.1) · 8-156 (Mitchell Starc, 58.1) · 9-173 (Pat Cummins, 64.1) · 10-234 (Nathan Lyon, 83.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 8/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 11/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 15/0 |
| 6 | 5 | 20/0 |
| 7 | 0 | 20/1 |
| 8 | 1 | 21/1 |
| 9 | 2 | 23/1 |
| 10 | 0 | 23/1 |
| 11 | 0 | 23/1 |
| 12 | 1 | 24/1 |
| 13 | 8 | 32/1 |
| 14 | 4 | 36/1 |
| 15 | 1 | 37/1 |
| 16 | 2 | 39/1 |
| 17 | 1 | 40/1 |
| 18 | 3 | 43/1 |
| 19 | 0 | 43/2 |
| 20 | 4 | 47/2 |
| 21 | 0 | 47/2 |
| 22 | 0 | 47/2 |
| 23 | 0 | 47/2 |
| 24 | 3 | 50/2 |
| 25 | 3 | 53/2 |
| 26 | 5 | 58/2 |
| 27 | 5 | 63/2 |
| 28 | 0 | 63/2 |
| 29 | 1 | 64/2 |
| 30 | 6 | 70/2 |
| 31 | 6 | 76/2 |
| 32 | 4 | 80/2 |
| 33 | 4 | 84/3 |
| 34 | 1 | 85/5 |
| 35 | 3 | 88/5 |
| 36 | 3 | 91/6 |
| 37 | 3 | 94/6 |
| 38 | 0 | 94/6 |
| 39 | 5 | 99/6 |
| 40 | 1 | 100/6 |
| 41 | 2 | 102/6 |
| 42 | 2 | 104/6 |
| 43 | 7 | 111/6 |
| 44 | 5 | 116/6 |
| 45 | 5 | 121/6 |
| 46 | 9 | 130/6 |
| 47 | 1 | 131/6 |
| 48 | 3 | 134/6 |
| 49 | 1 | 135/6 |
| 50 | 0 | 135/6 |
| 51 | 0 | 135/6 |
| 52 | 0 | 135/6 |
| 53 | 4 | 139/6 |
| 54 | 5 | 144/6 |
| 55 | 4 | 148/6 |
| 56 | 2 | 150/7 |
| 57 | 2 | 152/7 |
| 58 | 3 | 155/7 |
| 59 | 2 | 157/8 |
| 60 | 4 | 161/8 |
| 61 | 0 | 161/8 |
| 62 | 4 | 165/8 |
| 63 | 4 | 169/8 |
| 64 | 4 | 173/8 |
| 65 | 1 | 174/9 |
| 66 | 5 | 179/9 |
| 67 | 5 | 184/9 |
| 68 | 3 | 187/9 |
| 69 | 1 | 188/9 |
| 70 | 1 | 189/9 |
| 71 | 2 | 191/9 |
| 72 | 0 | 191/9 |
| 73 | 5 | 196/9 |
| 74 | 1 | 197/9 |
| 75 | 2 | 199/9 |
| 76 | 0 | 199/9 |
| 77 | 1 | 200/9 |
| 78 | 6 | 206/9 |
| 79 | 0 | 206/9 |
| 80 | 1 | 207/9 |
| 81 | 7 | 214/9 |
| 82 | 14 | 228/9 |
| 83 | 5 | 233/9 |
| 84 | 1 | 234/10 |
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Jasprit Bumrah: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Washington Sundar: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Yashasvi Jaiswal: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Nitish Kumar Reddy: WikiWanderer261 · CC0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Nathan Lyon: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sam Konstas: WikiWanderer261 · CC0
Rishabh Pant: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammed Siraj: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Pat Cummins: SirWellsy99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Scott Boland: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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