AustraliaversusNew Zealand

25 Feb 2024 · T20

Eden Park, Auckland · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 27 runs

Australia10.4 overs118/4 New Zealand10.0 overs98/3 Eden Park, Auckland ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

56%Australia44%New Zealand

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than New Zealand (1,647 vs 1,594 on our results rating)
New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 6 and New Zealand won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.