Super Smash · 2023/24 · Men

OtagoversusCanterbury

3 Jan 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Canterbury won by 4 wickets

Otago20.0 overs171/5 Canterbury18.5 overs175/6 Molyneux Park, Alexandra ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Otago started on 40%; Otago batted first.

Otago’s chance of winning (%) · Canterbury is the rest

Otago's chances ranged from 1% to 57% during the match (Canterbury: 43% to 99%).

Biggest swings

1.2: ZGF Foulkes to JM Gibson, JM Gibson out. Canterbury up from 51% to 62%.
2nd inns 2.6: ATE Hazeldine to CJ Bowes, CJ Bowes out. Otago up from 43% to 56%.
2nd inns 10.4: T Muller to MJ Hay, MJ Hay out. Otago up from 29% to 45%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Otago chose to bat
Player of the match: Henry Nicholls
match referees: TL Anderson
reserve umpires: JT Blunt
tv umpires: C Black
umpires: PJ Pasco, SB Haig

Match history & source

On 3 Jan 2024, Otago played Canterbury at Molyneux Park, Alexandra. Recorded result: Canterbury won by 4 wickets.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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