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Photo: Marc Dalmulder from Hamlyn Terrace, Australia
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
The Ashes · 2025/26 · Men
4 Jan 2026 · Test
Sydney Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 4
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Travis Headcaught · Brydon Carse · Josh Tongue4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brydon Carse · b Josh Tongue | 29 | 35 | 4 | 0 | 82.86 |
| Jake Weatheraldcaught · Matthew Potts · Josh Tongue 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matthew Potts · b Josh Tongue | 34 | 40 | 5 | 0 | 85.00 |
 Marnus Labuschagnerun out · Jamie Smith, Matthew Potts · Joe Root4 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Jamie Smith, Matthew Potts | 37 | 40 | 4 | 1 | 92.50 |
 |
| bowled · b Will Jacks |
| 12 |
| 12 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
 Usman Khawajabowled · Josh Tongue1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Josh Tongue | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 85.71 |
|---|
 Alex Careynot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 16* | 27 | 1 | 0 | 59.26 |
|---|
 Cameron Greennot out3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 22* | 27 | 3 | 0 | 81.48 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 3 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 1 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brydon Carse0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 51 | 0 | 6.38 | 1 | 0 |
| Josh Tongue0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 11.0 | 0 | 42 | 3 | 3.82 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Bethell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Will Jacks1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.2 | 1 | 42 | 1 | 6.63 | 0 | 0 |
 Joe Root1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-62 (Travis Head, 10.3) · 2-71 (Jake Weatherald, 14.4) · 3-92 (Steve Smith, 17.5) · 4-119 (Usman Khawaja, 22.1) · 5-121 (Marnus Labuschagne, 23.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 10/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 18/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 20/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 24/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 27/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 28/0 |
| 7 | 6 | 34/0 |
| 8 | 6 | 40/0 |
| 9 | 9 | 49/0 |
| 10 | 8 | 57/0 |
| 11 | 7 | 64/1 |
| 12 | 2 | 66/1 |
| 13 | 4 | 70/1 |
| 14 | 1 | 71/1 |
| 15 | 2 | 73/2 |
| 16 | 10 | 83/2 |
| 17 | 5 | 88/2 |
| 18 | 4 | 92/3 |
| 19 | 3 | 95/3 |
| 20 | 7 | 102/3 |
| 21 | 1 | 103/3 |
| 22 | 16 | 119/3 |
| 23 | 2 | 121/4 |
| 24 | 4 | 125/5 |
| 25 | 6 | 131/5 |
| 26 | 0 | 131/5 |
| 27 | 7 | 138/5 |
| 28 | 2 | 140/5 |
| 29 | 4 | 144/5 |
| 30 | 3 | 147/5 |
| 31 | 10 | 157/5 |
| 32 | 4 | 161/5 |
Beau Webster: Dave Morton · Public domain
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Matthew Potts: Dave Morton · Public domain
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Michael Neser: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Scott Boland: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zak Crawley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Stokes: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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