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Photo: Marc Dalmulder from Hamlyn Terrace, Australia
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
The Ashes · 2025/26 · Men
4 Jan 2026 · Test
Sydney Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 3
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Zak Crawleylbw · Mitchell Starc0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Mitchell Starc | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Ben Duckettbowled · Michael Neser6 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Michael Neser | 42 | 55 | 6 | 0 | 76.36 |
| Jacob Bethellcaught · Alex Carey · Mitchell Starc 15 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Mitchell Starc | 154 | 265 | 15 | 0 | 58.11 |
 Joe Root |
| lbw · b Scott Boland |
| 6 |
| 37 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 16.22 |
 Harry Brooklbw · Beau Webster5 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Beau Webster | 42 | 48 | 5 | 0 | 87.50 |
|---|
 Will Jackscaught · Cameron Green · Beau Webster0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Cameron Green · b Beau Webster | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Jamie Smithrun out · Jake Weatherald, Marnus Labuschagne · Marnus Labuschagne3 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Jake Weatherald, Marnus Labuschagne | 26 | 41 | 3 | 0 | 63.41 |
|---|
 Ben Stokescaught · Steve Smith · Beau Webster0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Steve Smith · b Beau Webster | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
 Brydon Carsecaught · Steve Smith · Scott Boland3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Steve Smith · b Scott Boland | 16 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
 Matthew Pottsnot out3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 18* | 43 | 3 | 0 | 41.86 |
|---|
| Josh Tonguecaught · Marnus Labuschagne · Mitchell Starc 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Marnus Labuschagne · b Mitchell Starc | 6 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 9 · legbyes: 11 · wides: 3 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 5 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Starc2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 18.2 | 2 | 72 | 3 | 3.93 | 0 | 0 |
 Scott Boland6 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 25.0 | 6 | 46 | 2 | 1.84 | 0 | 0 |
 Michael Neser0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 16.0 | 0 | 55 | 1 | 3.44 | 0 | 1 |
 Cameron Green0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 6.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Beau Webster1 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 16.0 | 1 | 64 | 3 | 4.00 | 0 | 1 |
 Travis Head0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 6.25 | 1 | 0 |
 Marnus Labuschagne0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 5.00 | 2 | 0 |
1-4 (Zak Crawley, 0.5) · 2-85 (Ben Duckett, 19.1) · 3-117 (Joe Root, 32.0) · 4-219 (Harry Brook, 51.1) · 5-219 (Will Jacks, 51.3) · 6-264 (Jamie Smith, 64.1) · 7-267 (Ben Stokes, 65.2) · 8-297 (Brydon Carse, 70.3) · 9-328 (Jacob Bethell, 84.2) · 10-342 (Josh Tongue, 88.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/1 |
| 2 | 1 | 5/1 |
| 3 | 10 | 15/1 |
| 4 | 0 | 15/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 17/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 18/1 |
| 7 | 8 | 26/1 |
| 8 | 7 | 33/1 |
| 9 | 1 | 34/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 36/1 |
| 11 | 6 | 42/1 |
| 12 | 7 | 49/1 |
| 13 | 8 | 57/1 |
| 14 | 8 | 65/1 |
| 15 | 11 | 76/1 |
| 16 | 1 | 77/1 |
| 17 | 3 | 80/1 |
| 18 | 3 | 83/1 |
| 19 | 2 | 85/1 |
| 20 | 1 | 86/2 |
| 21 | 0 | 86/2 |
| 22 | 5 | 91/2 |
| 23 | 1 | 92/2 |
| 24 | 1 | 93/2 |
| 25 | 5 | 98/2 |
| 26 | 1 | 99/2 |
| 27 | 7 | 106/2 |
| 28 | 3 | 109/2 |
| 29 | 7 | 116/2 |
| 30 | 1 | 117/2 |
| 31 | 0 | 117/2 |
| 32 | 0 | 117/3 |
| 33 | 8 | 125/3 |
| 34 | 2 | 127/3 |
| 35 | 10 | 137/3 |
| 36 | 6 | 143/3 |
| 37 | 14 | 157/3 |
| 38 | 1 | 158/3 |
| 39 | 2 | 160/3 |
| 40 | 8 | 168/3 |
| 41 | 6 | 174/3 |
| 42 | 3 | 177/3 |
| 43 | 9 | 186/3 |
| 44 | 9 | 195/3 |
| 45 | 4 | 199/3 |
| 46 | 2 | 201/3 |
| 47 | 4 | 205/3 |
| 48 | 1 | 206/3 |
| 49 | 0 | 206/3 |
| 50 | 7 | 213/3 |
| 51 | 6 | 219/3 |
| 52 | 1 | 220/5 |
| 53 | 1 | 221/5 |
| 54 | 4 | 225/5 |
| 55 | 3 | 228/5 |
| 56 | 4 | 232/5 |
| 57 | 1 | 233/5 |
| 58 | 6 | 239/5 |
| 59 | 1 | 240/5 |
| 60 | 5 | 245/5 |
| 61 | 5 | 250/5 |
| 62 | 3 | 253/5 |
| 63 | 4 | 257/5 |
| 64 | 7 | 264/5 |
| 65 | 3 | 267/6 |
| 66 | 0 | 267/7 |
| 67 | 8 | 275/7 |
| 68 | 6 | 281/7 |
| 69 | 9 | 290/7 |
| 70 | 6 | 296/7 |
| 71 | 1 | 297/8 |
| 72 | 1 | 298/8 |
| 73 | 3 | 301/8 |
| 74 | 1 | 302/8 |
| 75 | 0 | 302/8 |
| 76 | 5 | 307/8 |
| 77 | 0 | 307/8 |
| 78 | 5 | 312/8 |
| 79 | 1 | 313/8 |
| 80 | 3 | 316/8 |
| 81 | 5 | 321/8 |
| 82 | 1 | 322/8 |
| 83 | 5 | 327/8 |
| 84 | 1 | 328/8 |
| 85 | 1 | 329/9 |
| 86 | 9 | 338/9 |
| 87 | 4 | 342/9 |
| 88 | 0 | 342/9 |
| 89 | 0 | 342/10 |
Beau Webster: Dave Morton · Public domain
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Matthew Potts: Dave Morton · Public domain
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Michael Neser: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Scott Boland: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zak Crawley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Stokes: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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