West IndiesversusNew Zealand

10 Dec 2025 · Test

Basin Reserve, Wellington · Venue photograph

Recorded result

New Zealand won by 9 wickets

West Indies75.0 overs205/10 New Zealand74.4 overs278/9d West Indies46.2 overs128/10 New Zealand10.0 overs57/1 Basin Reserve, Wellington ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

New Zealand more likely to win

7%West Indies19%Draw74%New Zealand

Why

On results in Tests so far, New Zealand rate stronger than West Indies (1,599 vs 1,383 on our results rating)
New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand
In the last 10 Tests between these sides, New Zealand won 8 and West Indies won 1 (1 drawn)

Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.