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Pakistan tour of England · 2026 · Men
27 Aug 2026 · Test
Lord's · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ben Duckettlbw · Mohammad Abbas3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Mohammad Abbas | 17 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 85.00 |
| Emilio Gaycaught · Mohammad Rizwan · Mohammad Abbas 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Rizwan · b Mohammad Abbas | 8 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 47.06 |
| Jordan Coxcaught · Agha Salman · Khurram Shehzad 7 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Agha Salman · b Khurram Shehzad | 55 | 105 | 7 | 0 | 52.38 |
 Joe Rootlbw · Mohammad Abbas0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Mohammad Abbas |
| 4 |
| 13 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 30.77 |
 Harry Brookbowled · Mohammad Ali2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mohammad Ali | 15 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 57.69 |
|---|
 Daniel Lawrencerun out · Shan Masood, Mohammad Rizwan · Ali Usman1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Shan Masood, Mohammad Rizwan | 17 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 41.46 |
|---|
 Jamie Smithbowled · Mohammad Ali10 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mohammad Ali | 61 | 80 | 10 | 0 | 76.25 |
|---|
| Gus Atkinsoncaught · Mohammad Ali · Ali Usman 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Ali · b Ali Usman | 45 | 46 | 6 | 0 | 97.83 |
|---|
 Ollie Robinsonbowled · Mohammad Ali0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mohammad Ali | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Jofra Archerbowled · Mohammad Abbas1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Mohammad Abbas | 14 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 107.69 |
|---|
| Josh Tonguenot out 4 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 30* | 48 | 4 | 0 | 62.50 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 11 · wides: 0 · noballs: 11 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mohammad Abbas3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 20.0 | 3 | 73 | 4 | 3.65 | 0 | 0 |
| Khurram Shehzad0 maidens · 0 wides · 5 no-balls | 15.0 | 0 | 79 | 1 | 5.27 | 0 | 5 |
| Mohammad Ali2 maidens · 0 wides · 6 no-balls | 22.0 | 2 | 86 | 3 | 3.91 | 0 | 6 |
| Ali Usman1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.4 | 1 | 39 | 1 | 4.03 | 0 | 0 |
1-21 (Emilio Gay, 5.0) · 2-26 (Ben Duckett, 6.4) · 3-36 (Joe Root, 10.3) · 4-77 (Harry Brook, 17.1) · 5-120 (Daniel Lawrence, 31.2) · 6-187 (Jordan Cox, 47.1) · 7-222 (Jamie Smith, 52.2) · 8-222 (Ollie Robinson, 52.4) · 9-243 (Jofra Archer, 55.3) · 10-290 (Gus Atkinson, 66.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 16/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 20/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 21/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 25/1 |
| 7 | 1 | 26/2 |
| 8 | 3 | 29/2 |
| 9 | 2 | 31/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 35/2 |
| 11 | 7 | 42/3 |
| 12 | 7 | 49/3 |
| 13 | 8 | 57/3 |
| 14 | 2 | 59/3 |
| 15 | 7 | 66/3 |
| 16 | 10 | 76/3 |
| 17 | 1 | 77/3 |
| 18 | 3 | 80/4 |
| 19 | 9 | 89/4 |
| 20 | 3 | 92/4 |
| 21 | 5 | 97/4 |
| 22 | 1 | 98/4 |
| 23 | 2 | 100/4 |
| 24 | 0 | 100/4 |
| 25 | 11 | 111/4 |
| 26 | 0 | 111/4 |
| 27 | 1 | 112/4 |
| 28 | 1 | 113/4 |
| 29 | 2 | 115/4 |
| 30 | 1 | 116/4 |
| 31 | 2 | 118/4 |
| 32 | 2 | 120/5 |
| 33 | 2 | 122/5 |
| 34 | 1 | 123/5 |
| 35 | 0 | 123/5 |
| 36 | 6 | 129/5 |
| 37 | 0 | 129/5 |
| 38 | 13 | 142/5 |
| 39 | 9 | 151/5 |
| 40 | 7 | 158/5 |
| 41 | 0 | 158/5 |
| 42 | 9 | 167/5 |
| 43 | 10 | 177/5 |
| 44 | 3 | 180/5 |
| 45 | 1 | 181/5 |
| 46 | 5 | 186/5 |
| 47 | 1 | 187/5 |
| 48 | 11 | 198/6 |
| 49 | 4 | 202/6 |
| 50 | 12 | 214/6 |
| 51 | 4 | 218/6 |
| 52 | 3 | 221/6 |
| 53 | 6 | 227/8 |
| 54 | 8 | 235/8 |
| 55 | 3 | 238/8 |
| 56 | 10 | 248/9 |
| 57 | 4 | 252/9 |
| 58 | 5 | 257/9 |
| 59 | 2 | 259/9 |
| 60 | 2 | 261/9 |
| 61 | 3 | 264/9 |
| 62 | 2 | 266/9 |
| 63 | 4 | 270/9 |
| 64 | 2 | 272/9 |
| 65 | 6 | 278/9 |
| 66 | 7 | 285/9 |
| 67 | 5 | 290/10 |
Daniel Lawrence: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Imam-ul-Haq: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Abbas: Dave Morton · Public domain
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Abdullah Shafique: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shan Masood: Balochistan Social News · CC BY 3.0
Saud Shakeel: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ollie Robinson: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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