**Boland Park, Paarl**
Photo: Jshecket
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

SA20 · 2023/24 · Men

Durban's Super GiantsversusPaarl Royals

26 Jan 2024 · T20

Boland Park, Paarl · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Durban's Super Giants won by 57 runs

Durban's Super Giants20.0 overs190/3 Paarl Royals19.3 overs133/10 Boland Park, Paarl ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Durban's Super Giants started on 43%; Durban's Super Giants batted first.

Durban's Super Giants’s chance of winning (%) · Paarl Royals is the rest

Durban's Super Giants's chances ranged from 30% to 100% during the match (Paarl Royals: 0% to 70%).

Biggest swings

2.3: BC Fortuin to MP Breetzke, MP Breetzke out. Paarl Royals up from 49% to 60%.
3.4: OC McCoy to T de Zorzi, T de Zorzi out. Paarl Royals up from 58% to 69%.
2nd inns 3.2: JT Smuts to JJ Roy, JJ Roy out. Durban's Super Giants up from 57% to 68%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Durban's Super Giants190/3 Paarl Royals133/10

Innings 1