ScotlandversusNepal

17 Jun 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Nepal won by 2 wickets

Scotland19.4 overs97/10 Nepal19.5 overs98/8 Titwood, Glasgow ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Scotland more likely to win

63%Scotland37%Nepal

Why

Scotland are playing at home in the United Kingdom
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Scotland won 1 and Nepal won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Scotland rate stronger than Nepal (1,557 vs 1,540 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Scotland started on 61%; Scotland batted first.

Scotland’s chance of winning (%) · Nepal is the rest

Scotland's chances ranged from 1% to 62% during the match (Nepal: 38% to 99%).

Biggest swings

0.5: DS Airee to MRJ Watt, MRJ Watt out. Nepal up from 38% to 51%.
1.4: Karan KC to LR Naylor, LR Naylor out. Nepal up from 59% to 80%.
3.4: Karan KC to FDW McCreath, FDW McCreath out. Nepal up from 71% to 87%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Scotland97/10 Nepal98/8

Innings 1

Scotland

97/1019.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Scotland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
George Munseycaught · Dipendra Singh Airee · Karan KC 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Dipendra Singh Airee · b Karan KC	8	5	1	0	160.00
Mark Wattbowled · Dipendra Singh Airee 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Dipendra Singh Airee	1	3	0	0	33.33
Brandon McMullencaught · Rohit Kumar · Lalit Rajbanshi 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Rohit Kumar · b Lalit Rajbanshi	10	12	1	1	83.33
Liam Naylorrun out · Lokesh Bam, Anil Sah · Karan KC 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Lokesh Bam, Anil Sah	1	1	0	0	100.00
Finlay McCreathcaught · Rupesh Singh · Karan KC 0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Dipendra Singh Airee0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.4	0	24	2	6.55	0
Karan KC0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	20	2	5.00	0
Lalit Rajbanshi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	22	1	5.50	0
Sandeep Lamichhane1 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	11	4	2.75	4
Kushal Bhurtel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	20	0	5.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/1
2	8	11/3
3	5	16/3
4	2	18/4
5	6	24/5
6	8	32/5
7	6	38/5
8	9	47/5
9	3	50/5
10	5	55/5
11	4	59/5
12	4	63/5
13	0	63/7
14	5	68/7
15	7	75/7
16	4	79/7
17	2	81/9
18	6	87/9
19	2	89/9
20	8	97/10

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