ScotlandversusNepal

Scotland more likely to win

Why

• Scotland are playing at home in the United Kingdom
• In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Scotland won 1 and Nepal won 0
• On results in T20 internationals so far, Scotland rate stronger than Nepal (1,557 vs 1,540 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Scotland started on 61%; Scotland batted first.

Scotland's chances ranged from 1% to 62% during the match (Nepal: 38% to 99%).

Biggest swings

1. 0.5: DS Airee to MRJ Watt, MRJ Watt out. Nepal up from 38% to 51%.
2. 1.4: Karan KC to LR Naylor, LR Naylor out. Nepal up from 59% to 80%.
3. 3.4: Karan KC to FDW McCreath, FDW McCreath out. Nepal up from 71% to 87%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.