West IndiesversusPakistan

30 Apr 2024 · T20

National Stadium, Karachi · Venue photograph

Recorded result

West Indies won by 2 runs

West Indies20.0 overs132/5 Pakistan20.0 overs130/8 National Stadium, Karachi ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

West Indies more likely to win

67%West Indies33%Pakistan

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, West Indies rate stronger than Pakistan (1,540 vs 1,460 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, West Indies won 8 and Pakistan won 2
Pakistan are playing at home in Pakistan

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

West Indies started on 64%; West Indies batted first.

West Indies’s chance of winning (%) · Pakistan is the rest

West Indies's chances ranged from 2% to 92% during the match (Pakistan: 9% to 98%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.2: ASS Fletcher to Aliya Riaz, Aliya Riaz out. West Indies up from 24% to 42%.
2nd inns 18.4: ASS Fletcher to Tuba Hassan, 0 runs to Tuba Hassan. West Indies up from 49% to 61%.
2nd inns 18.5: ASS Fletcher to Tuba Hassan, 0 runs to Tuba Hassan. West Indies up from 61% to 73%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

West Indies132/5 Pakistan130/8

Innings 1

West Indies

132/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

West Indies batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Hayley Matthewscaught · Nida Dar · Tuba Hassan 10 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Nida Dar · b Tuba Hassan	68	49	10	0	138.78
Rashada Williamsbowled · Fatima Sana 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Fatima Sana	1	9	0	0	11.11
Shemaine Campbellecaught · Najiha Alvi · Nida Dar 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Najiha Alvi · b Nida Dar	31	38	0	0	81.58
Chedean Nationcaught · Sadia Iqbal · Fatima Sana 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sadia Iqbal · b Fatima Sana	10	13	0	0	76.92

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Sadia Iqbal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	0	4.75	0
Fatima Sana0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	2	5.50	3
Rameen Shamim0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	0	7.00	1
Tuba Hassan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	31	1	7.75	0
Nida Dar0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	1	7.50	4

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/0
2	3	4/0
3	7	11/0
4	7	18/1
5	6	24/1
6	6	30/1
7	13	43/1
8	6	49/1
9	8	57/1
10	6	63/1
11	9	72/1
12	16	88/1
13	7	95/1
14	7	102/1
15	4	106/1
16	3	109/2
17	4	113/3
18	8	121/3
19	5	126/3
20	6	132/5

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