Sydney ThunderversusBrisbane Heat

10 Jan 2026 · T20

Brisbane Cricket Ground · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Brisbane Heat won by 7 wickets

Sydney Thunder20.0 overs180/6 Brisbane Heat16.2 overs183/3 Brisbane Cricket Ground ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sydney Thunder started on 41%; Sydney Thunder batted first.

Sydney Thunder’s chance of winning (%) · Brisbane Heat is the rest

Sydney Thunder's chances ranged from 0% to 61% during the match (Brisbane Heat: 39% to 100%).

Biggest swings

4.3: MT Renshaw to M Gilkes, M Gilkes out. Brisbane Heat up from 47% to 58%.
6.6: Thomas Balkin to CT Bancroft, CT Bancroft out. Brisbane Heat up from 58% to 66%.
2nd inns 3.5: DR Sams to JD Wildermuth, JD Wildermuth out. Sydney Thunder up from 16% to 24%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Sydney Thunder chose to bat
Player of the match: Usman Khawaja
match referees: Kepler Wessels
reserve umpires: SE Dionysius
tv umpires: GA Abood
umpires: BC Treloar, C Grant

Match history & source

On 10 Jan 2026, Sydney Thunder played Brisbane Heat at Brisbane Cricket Ground. Recorded result: Brisbane Heat won by 7 wickets.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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