Birmingham BearsversusSomerset

6 Sept 2025 · T20

The County Ground, Taunton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Somerset won by 4 wickets

Birmingham Bears20.0 overs190/6 Somerset19.5 overs191/6 The County Ground, Taunton ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Birmingham Bears started on 38%; Birmingham Bears batted first.

Birmingham Bears’s chance of winning (%) · Somerset is the rest

Birmingham Bears's chances ranged from 7% to 90% during the match (Somerset: 10% to 94%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 17.3: OJ Hannon-Dalby to L Gregory, L Gregory out. Birmingham Bears up from 51% to 69%.
2nd inns 19.3: EG Barnard to SR Dickson, six by SR Dickson. Somerset up from 28% to 71%.
2nd inns 19.4: EG Barnard to SR Dickson, four by SR Dickson. Somerset up from 71% to 94%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.