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Pakistan tour of West Indies · 2025 · Men
8 Aug 2025 · ODI
Brian Lara Stadium, Tarouba, Trinidad · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 38%; West Indies batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saim Ayubcaught · Shai Hope · Jayden Seales 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shai Hope · b Jayden Seales | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 41.67 |
 Abdullah Shafiquelbw · Shamar Joseph2 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Shamar Joseph | 29 | 33 | 2 | 1 | 87.88 |
 Mohammad Babar Azamstumped · Shai Hope · Gudakesh Motie5 fours · 1 sixes | stumped · Shai Hope · b Gudakesh Motie | 47 | 64 | 5 | 1 | 73.44 |
 Mohammad Rizwanlbw · Shamar Joseph4 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Shamar Joseph | 53 | 69 |
West Indies's chances ranged from 1% to 74% during the match (Pakistan: 26% to 99%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 76.81 |
| Salman Ali Aghacaught and bowled · Roston Chase 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Roston Chase | 23 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 88.46 |
|---|
| Hassan Nawaznot out 5 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 63* | 54 | 5 | 3 | 116.67 |
|---|
| Hussain Talatnot out 4 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 41* | 37 | 4 | 1 | 110.81 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 17 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Seales1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 59 | 1 | 5.90 | 1 | 0 |
| Jediah Blades0 maidens · 4 wides · 1 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 53 | 0 | 7.57 | 4 | 1 |
| Shamar Joseph1 maidens · 10 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.5 | 1 | 65 | 2 | 6.61 | 10 | 0 |
| Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 42 | 1 | 4.20 | 1 | 0 |
| Romario Shepherd1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Roston Chase0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 41 | 1 | 5.13 | 1 | 1 |
1-16 (Saim Ayub, 3.0) · 2-63 (Abdullah Shafique, 12.0) · 3-118 (Mohammad Babar Azam, 23.3) · 4-158 (Salman Ali Agha, 30.4) · 5-180 (Mohammad Rizwan, 37.2)
Recorded target: 281 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 16/1 |
| 4 | 5 | 21/1 |
| 5 | 0 | 21/1 |
| 6 | 8 | 29/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 33/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 35/1 |
| 9 | 9 | 44/1 |
| 10 | 4 | 48/1 |
| 11 | 9 | 57/1 |
| 12 | 6 | 63/2 |
| 13 | 0 | 63/2 |
| 14 | 0 | 63/2 |
| 15 | 7 | 70/2 |
| 16 | 5 | 75/2 |
| 17 | 4 | 79/2 |
| 18 | 9 | 88/2 |
| 19 | 9 | 97/2 |
| 20 | 5 | 102/2 |
| 21 | 7 | 109/2 |
| 22 | 3 | 112/2 |
| 23 | 6 | 118/2 |
| 24 | 1 | 119/3 |
| 25 | 8 | 127/3 |
| 26 | 5 | 132/3 |
| 27 | 6 | 138/3 |
| 28 | 9 | 147/3 |
| 29 | 5 | 152/3 |
| 30 | 4 | 156/3 |
| 31 | 3 | 159/4 |
| 32 | 2 | 161/4 |
| 33 | 1 | 162/4 |
| 34 | 3 | 165/4 |
| 35 | 7 | 172/4 |
| 36 | 1 | 173/4 |
| 37 | 7 | 180/4 |
| 38 | 3 | 183/5 |
| 39 | 9 | 192/5 |
| 40 | 17 | 209/5 |
| 41 | 1 | 210/5 |
| 42 | 12 | 222/5 |
| 43 | 8 | 230/5 |
| 44 | 10 | 240/5 |
| 45 | 4 | 244/5 |
| 46 | 6 | 250/5 |
| 47 | 4 | 254/5 |
| 48 | 15 | 269/5 |
| 49 | 15 | 284/5 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Abdullah Shafique: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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