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Pakistan tour of West Indies · 2025 · Men
8 Aug 2025 · ODI
Brian Lara Stadium, Tarouba, Trinidad · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 38%; West Indies batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Kingcaught · Mohammad Babar Azam · Shaheen Afridi 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Babar Azam · b Shaheen Afridi | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
| Evin Lewiscaught · Shaheen Afridi · Saim Ayub 5 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Shaheen Afridi · b Saim Ayub | 60 | 62 | 5 | 3 | 96.77 |
| Keacy Cartycaught · Salman Ali Agha · Sufyan Moqeem 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Salman Ali Agha · b Sufyan Moqeem | 30 | 39 | 3 | 0 | 76.92 |
 Shai Hopecaught · Mohammad Rizwan · Shaheen Afridi4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Rizwan · b Shaheen Afridi | 55 | 77 | 4 | 0 | 71.43 |
| Sherfane Rutherfordcaught · Saim Ayub · Salman Ali Agha0 fours · 0 sixes |
West Indies's chances ranged from 1% to 74% during the match (Pakistan: 26% to 99%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Saim Ayub · b Salman Ali Agha |
| 10 |
| 19 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 52.63 |
 Roston Chasecaught · Mohammad Babar Azam · Naseem Shah4 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Mohammad Babar Azam · b Naseem Shah | 53 | 54 | 4 | 2 | 98.15 |
|---|
| Romario Shepherdcaught · Abdullah Shafique · Shaheen Afridi 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Abdullah Shafique · b Shaheen Afridi | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Gudakesh Motiebowled · Naseem Shah 3 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Naseem Shah | 31 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 172.22 |
|---|
| Shamar Josephbowled · Shaheen Afridi 0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Shaheen Afridi | 8 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Jayden Sealesnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Jediah Bladesbowled · Naseem Shah 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Naseem Shah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 8 · wides: 10 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shaheen Afridi0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 51 | 4 | 6.38 | 2 | 1 |
 Naseem Shah0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 55 | 3 | 6.88 | 2 | 1 |
| Saim Ayub1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 48 | 1 | 4.80 | 1 | 0 |
| Sufyan Moqeem0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 52 | 1 | 5.20 | 3 | 0 |
| Salman Ali Agha0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 44 | 1 | 4.40 | 2 | 0 |
| Fahim Ashraf0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-4 (Brandon King, 0.5) · 2-81 (Keacy Carty, 14.2) · 3-105 (Evin Lewis, 19.0) · 4-136 (Sherfane Rutherford, 25.3) · 5-200 (Shai Hope, 40.2) · 6-215 (Romario Shepherd, 43.0) · 7-233 (Roston Chase, 44.5) · 8-262 (Shamar Joseph, 47.2) · 9-280 (Gudakesh Motie, 48.5) · 10-280 (Jediah Blades, 49.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/1 |
| 2 | 2 | 6/1 |
| 3 | 8 | 14/1 |
| 4 | 9 | 23/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 29/1 |
| 6 | 3 | 32/1 |
| 7 | 7 | 39/1 |
| 8 | 0 | 39/1 |
| 9 | 10 | 49/1 |
| 10 | 10 | 59/1 |
| 11 | 10 | 69/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 73/1 |
| 13 | 2 | 75/1 |
| 14 | 6 | 81/1 |
| 15 | 3 | 84/2 |
| 16 | 1 | 85/2 |
| 17 | 11 | 96/2 |
| 18 | 2 | 98/2 |
| 19 | 7 | 105/3 |
| 20 | 7 | 112/3 |
| 21 | 6 | 118/3 |
| 22 | 3 | 121/3 |
| 23 | 3 | 124/3 |
| 24 | 7 | 131/3 |
| 25 | 4 | 135/3 |
| 26 | 2 | 137/4 |
| 27 | 1 | 138/4 |
| 28 | 9 | 147/4 |
| 29 | 3 | 150/4 |
| 30 | 4 | 154/4 |
| 31 | 6 | 160/4 |
| 32 | 5 | 165/4 |
| 33 | 8 | 173/4 |
| 34 | 1 | 174/4 |
| 35 | 4 | 178/4 |
| 36 | 4 | 182/4 |
| 37 | 3 | 185/4 |
| 38 | 3 | 188/4 |
| 39 | 3 | 191/4 |
| 40 | 5 | 196/4 |
| 41 | 5 | 201/5 |
| 42 | 5 | 206/5 |
| 43 | 9 | 215/6 |
| 44 | 9 | 224/6 |
| 45 | 9 | 233/7 |
| 46 | 10 | 243/7 |
| 47 | 11 | 254/7 |
| 48 | 14 | 268/8 |
| 49 | 12 | 280/10 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Abdullah Shafique: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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