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Photo: Javs1233
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New Zealand tour of India · 2025/26 · Men
25 Jan 2026 · T20
Barsapara Cricket Stadium, Guwahati · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 11%; New Zealand batted first.
New Zealand's chances ranged from 0% to 13% during the match (India: 87% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Conwaycaught · Hardik Pandya · Harshit Rana 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hardik Pandya · b Harshit Rana | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Tim Seifertbowled · Jasprit Bumrah 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jasprit Bumrah | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 109.09 |
 Rachin Ravindracaught · Ravi Bishnoi · Hardik Pandya1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ravi Bishnoi · b Hardik Pandya | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
| Glenn Phillipscaught · Ishan Kishan · Ravi Bishnoi 6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Ishan Kishan · b Ravi Bishnoi | 48 | 40 | 6 | 1 | 120.00 |
| Mark Chapmancaught · Sanju Samson · Ravi Bishnoi 2 fours · 2 sixes |
| caught · Sanju Samson · b Ravi Bishnoi |
| 32 |
| 23 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 139.13 |
| Daryl Mitchellcaught · Ishan Kishan · Hardik Pandya 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Ishan Kishan · b Hardik Pandya | 14 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 175.00 |
|---|
| Mitchell Santnercaught · Abhishek Sharma · Jasprit Bumrah 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Abhishek Sharma · b Jasprit Bumrah | 27 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 158.82 |
|---|
 Kyle Jamiesonbowled · Jasprit Bumrah0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jasprit Bumrah | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
 Matt Henryrun out · Ishan Kishan, Jasprit Bumrah · Jasprit Bumrah0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Ishan Kishan, Jasprit Bumrah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Ish Sodhinot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
 Jacob Duffynot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 1 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harshit Rana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 8.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Hardik Pandya0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 7.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Ravi Bishnoi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Jasprit Bumrah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 3 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Kuldeep Yadav0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 10.67 | 1 | 0 |
 Shivam Dube0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 12.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-2 (Devon Conway, 0.3) · 2-13 (Rachin Ravindra, 1.4) · 3-34 (Tim Seifert, 5.1) · 4-86 (Mark Chapman, 12.0) · 5-112 (Daryl Mitchell, 14.4) · 6-112 (Glenn Phillips, 15.1) · 7-132 (Kyle Jamieson, 17.2) · 8-134 (Matt Henry, 17.4) · 9-144 (Mitchell Santner, 19.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/1 |
| 2 | 11 | 17/2 |
| 3 | 9 | 26/2 |
| 4 | 7 | 33/2 |
| 5 | 1 | 34/2 |
| 6 | 2 | 36/3 |
| 7 | 3 | 39/3 |
| 8 | 4 | 43/3 |
| 9 | 19 | 62/3 |
| 10 | 13 | 75/3 |
| 11 | 7 | 82/3 |
| 12 | 4 | 86/4 |
| 13 | 11 | 97/4 |
| 14 | 10 | 107/4 |
| 15 | 5 | 112/5 |
| 16 | 9 | 121/6 |
| 17 | 11 | 132/6 |
| 18 | 3 | 135/8 |
| 19 | 9 | 144/8 |
| 20 | 9 | 153/9 |
Sanju Samson: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Jasprit Bumrah: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Hardik Pandya: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Kyle Jamieson: Photographer - David Hollander · CC BY 3.0 nz
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Suryakumar Yadav: Kolkata Knight Riders - Official · CC BY 3.0
Shivam Dube: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ish Sodhi: www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia · CC BY 2.0
Kuldeep Yadav: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Ishan Kishan: Tata Ipl 2022 · CC BY 3.0
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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