New ZealandversusIndia

25 Jan 2026 · T20

Barsapara Cricket Stadium, Guwahati · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 8 wickets

New Zealand20.0 overs153/9 India10.0 overs155/2 Barsapara Cricket Stadium, Guwahati ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

12%New Zealand88%India

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than New Zealand (1,858 vs 1,653 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 8 and New Zealand won 1 (1 tied)
India are playing at home in India

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

New Zealand started on 11%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand’s chance of winning (%) · India is the rest

New Zealand's chances ranged from 0% to 13% during the match (India: 87% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.3: Harshit Rana to DP Conway, DP Conway out. India up from 89% to 94%.
1.4: HH Pandya to R Ravindra, R Ravindra out. India up from 91% to 94%.
2nd inns 0.1: MJ Henry to SV Samson, SV Samson out. New Zealand up from 7% to 13%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

New Zealand153/9 India155/2

Innings 2

India

155/210.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sanju Samsonbowled · Matt Henry 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Matt Henry	0	1	0	0	0.00
Abhishek Sharmanot out 7 fours · 5 sixes	not out	68*	20	7	5	340.00
Ishan Kishancaught · Mark Chapman · Ish Sodhi 3 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Mark Chapman · b Ish Sodhi	28	13	3	2	215.38
Suryakumar Yadavnot out 6 fours · 3 sixes	not out	57*	26	6	3	219.23
Extras	byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Matt Henry0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	28	1	14.00	0
Jacob Duffy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	38	0	19.00	0
Kyle Jamieson0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	17	0	17.00	2
Ish Sodhi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	28	1	14.00	0
Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	28	0	14.00	0
Glenn Phillips0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	16	0	16.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	16	16/1
2	16	32/1
3	17	49/1
4	11	60/2
5	12	72/2
6	22	94/2
7	11	105/2
8	17	122/2
9	17	139/2
10	16	155/2

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