IndiaversusNew Zealand

1 Nov 2026 · T20

Seddon Park, Hamilton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

New Zealand won by 7 wickets

India20.0 overs191/8 New Zealand18.0 overs195/3 Seddon Park, Hamilton ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

76%India24%New Zealand

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than New Zealand (1,760 vs 1,604 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 8 and New Zealand won 2
New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 75%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · New Zealand is the rest

India's chances ranged from 0% to 91% during the match (New Zealand: 9% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.1: AF Milne to SV Samson, SV Samson out. New Zealand up from 31% to 44%.
2nd inns 8.3: CV Varun to DJ Mitchell, DJ Mitchell out. India up from 48% to 61%.
2nd inns 11.6: Arshdeep Singh to TL Seifert, four by TL Seifert. New Zealand up from 61% to 72%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.