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Photo: PaddyBriggs
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Australia tour of New Zealand · 2023/24 · Men
29 Feb 2024 · Test
Basin Reserve, Wellington · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 4
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tom Lathamcaught · Alex Carey · Nathan Lyon1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Nathan Lyon | 8 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 44.44 |
 Will Youngcaught · Steve Smith · Travis Head2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Steve Smith · b Travis Head | 15 | 52 | 2 | 0 | 28.85 |
 Kane Williamsoncaught · Steve Smith · Nathan Lyon2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Steve Smith · b Nathan Lyon | 9 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 47.37 |
| caught · Cameron Green · b Nathan Lyon |
| 59 |
| 105 |
| 8 |
| 1 |
| 56.19 |
| Daryl Mitchellcaught and bowled · Josh Hazlewood 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Josh Hazlewood | 38 | 130 | 2 | 0 | 29.23 |
|---|
 Tom Blundellcaught · Travis Head · Nathan Lyon0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Travis Head · b Nathan Lyon | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Glenn Phillipslbw · Nathan Lyon 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nathan Lyon | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
|---|
| Scott Kuggeleijncaught · Alex Carey · Cameron Green 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Cameron Green | 26 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 92.86 |
|---|
 Matt Henrycaught · Steve Smith · Josh Hazlewood2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Steve Smith · b Josh Hazlewood | 14 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 93.33 |
|---|
 Tim Southeecaught · Mitchell Starc · Nathan Lyon0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mitchell Starc · b Nathan Lyon | 7 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
 William O’Rourkenot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 14 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 2 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Starc3 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 3.22 | 1 | 0 |
 Josh Hazlewood2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.4 | 2 | 20 | 2 | 2.07 | 0 | 0 |
 Nathan Lyon8 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 27.0 | 8 | 65 | 6 | 2.41 | 0 | 0 |
 Pat Cummins1 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 12.0 | 1 | 40 | 0 | 3.33 | 0 | 1 |
 Travis Head1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 2.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Cameron Green0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 5.33 | 1 | 0 |
1-15 (Tom Latham, 5.2) · 2-35 (Kane Williamson, 11.1) · 3-59 (Will Young, 20.3) · 4-126 (Rachin Ravindra, 47.3) · 5-126 (Tom Blundell, 48.0) · 6-128 (Glenn Phillips, 49.4) · 7-164 (Scott Kuggeleijn, 56.3) · 8-187 (Matt Henry, 60.4) · 9-194 (Tim Southee, 61.5) · 10-196 (Daryl Mitchell, 64.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 8/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 15/0 |
| 5 | 0 | 15/0 |
| 6 | 0 | 15/1 |
| 7 | 0 | 15/1 |
| 8 | 1 | 16/1 |
| 9 | 5 | 21/1 |
| 10 | 12 | 33/1 |
| 11 | 2 | 35/1 |
| 12 | 1 | 36/2 |
| 13 | 5 | 41/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 43/2 |
| 15 | 0 | 43/2 |
| 16 | 0 | 43/2 |
| 17 | 2 | 45/2 |
| 18 | 5 | 50/2 |
| 19 | 5 | 55/2 |
| 20 | 4 | 59/2 |
| 21 | 0 | 59/3 |
| 22 | 1 | 60/3 |
| 23 | 2 | 62/3 |
| 24 | 2 | 64/3 |
| 25 | 2 | 66/3 |
| 26 | 1 | 67/3 |
| 27 | 1 | 68/3 |
| 28 | 4 | 72/3 |
| 29 | 5 | 77/3 |
| 30 | 0 | 77/3 |
| 31 | 6 | 83/3 |
| 32 | 1 | 84/3 |
| 33 | 5 | 89/3 |
| 34 | 7 | 96/3 |
| 35 | 5 | 101/3 |
| 36 | 0 | 101/3 |
| 37 | 5 | 106/3 |
| 38 | 0 | 106/3 |
| 39 | 0 | 106/3 |
| 40 | 3 | 109/3 |
| 41 | 2 | 111/3 |
| 42 | 0 | 111/3 |
| 43 | 2 | 113/3 |
| 44 | 1 | 114/3 |
| 45 | 1 | 115/3 |
| 46 | 6 | 121/3 |
| 47 | 5 | 126/3 |
| 48 | 0 | 126/5 |
| 49 | 2 | 128/5 |
| 50 | 1 | 129/6 |
| 51 | 2 | 131/6 |
| 52 | 8 | 139/6 |
| 53 | 6 | 145/6 |
| 54 | 4 | 149/6 |
| 55 | 3 | 152/6 |
| 56 | 8 | 160/6 |
| 57 | 5 | 165/7 |
| 58 | 1 | 166/7 |
| 59 | 9 | 175/7 |
| 60 | 11 | 186/7 |
| 61 | 2 | 188/8 |
| 62 | 6 | 194/9 |
| 63 | 1 | 195/9 |
| 64 | 1 | 196/9 |
| 65 | 0 | 196/10 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Nathan Lyon: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Pat Cummins: SirWellsy99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tim Southee: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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