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Canada Women tour of Uganda · 2025/26 · Women
24 Oct 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Uganda more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Uganda started on 85%; Uganda batted first.
Uganda's chances ranged from 80% to 100% during the match (Canada: 0% to 20%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Pereracaught · Prosscovia Alako · K Amuge 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Prosscovia Alako · b K Amuge | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Indomatie Goordialrun out · Janet Mbabazi, Kevin Awino · K Amuge 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Janet Mbabazi, Kevin Awino | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Kainat Qazibowled · S Tino 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b S Tino | 14 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 46.67 |
 Amarpal Kaurbowled · K Amuge1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b K Amuge | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 83.33 |
| K Kapadiarun out · Rita Musamali, Kevin Awino · S Tino 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Rita Musamali, Kevin Awino | 8 |
| 12 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 66.67 |
| V Mahajanrun out · Kevin Awino, S Tino · NJ Amongin 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Kevin Awino, S Tino | 13 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 81.25 |
|---|
| TA Laviacaught · Kevin Awino · Concy Aweko 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kevin Awino · b Concy Aweko | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
| Zeel Patelcaught · Rita Musamali · Immaculate Nakisuuyi 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rita Musamali · b Immaculate Nakisuuyi | 7 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 36.84 |
|---|
| Habeeba Badercaught and bowled · Immaculate Nakisuuyi 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Immaculate Nakisuuyi | 11 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 57.89 |
|---|
| Rabbjyot Rajputnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| T Thorpenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Amuge1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| NJ Amongin0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 2.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Concy Aweko0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 2.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Rita Musamali0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
| S Tino0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 4.75 | 3 | 0 |
| Immaculate Nakisuuyi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-0 (A Perera, 0.3) · 2-0 (Indomatie Goordial, 0.5) · 3-6 (Amarpal Kaur, 2.2) · 4-21 (Kainat Qazi, 7.5) · 5-32 (K Kapadia, 9.1) · 6-43 (TA Lavia, 11.4) · 7-50 (V Mahajan, 14.1) · 8-63 (Zeel Patel, 17.3) · 9-68 (Habeeba Bader, 19.3)
Recorded target: 114 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/2 |
| 2 | 2 | 2/2 |
| 3 | 6 | 8/3 |
| 4 | 1 | 9/3 |
| 5 | 2 | 11/3 |
| 6 | 3 | 14/3 |
| 7 | 5 | 19/3 |
| 8 | 3 | 22/4 |
| 9 | 9 | 31/4 |
| 10 | 6 | 37/5 |
| 11 | 4 | 41/5 |
| 12 | 2 | 43/6 |
| 13 | 1 | 44/6 |
| 14 | 5 | 49/6 |
| 15 | 5 | 54/7 |
| 16 | 5 | 59/7 |
| 17 | 2 | 61/7 |
| 18 | 2 | 63/8 |
| 19 | 3 | 66/8 |
| 20 | 4 | 70/9 |
Amarpal Kaur: ISimarKhosa · CC0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
