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New Zealand tour of England · 2026 · Men
25 Jun 2026 · Test
Trent Bridge · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ben Duckettbowled · Nathan Smith19 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nathan Smith | 113 | 99 | 19 | 0 | 114.14 |
| Emilio Gaycaught · Tom Blundell · William O’Rourke 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Blundell · b William O’Rourke | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Jacob Bethellcaught · Tom Latham · William O’Rourke 9 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Latham · b William O’Rourke | 74 | 133 | 9 | 0 | 55.64 |
 Joe Rootlbw · Nathan Smith3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nathan Smith |
| 21 |
| 46 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 45.65 |
 Harry Brookbowled · Zakary Foulkes5 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Zakary Foulkes | 58 | 80 | 5 | 0 | 72.50 |
|---|
 Jamie Smithcaught · Daryl Mitchell · Nathan Smith0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Nathan Smith | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 8.33 |
|---|
 Ben Stokesbowled · Zakary Foulkes1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Zakary Foulkes | 15 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 45.45 |
|---|
| Gus Atkinsoncaught · Daryl Mitchell · William O’Rourke 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Daryl Mitchell · b William O’Rourke | 23 | 86 | 3 | 0 | 26.74 |
|---|
 Jofra Archercaught · Daryl Mitchell · Nathan Smith1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Nathan Smith | 15 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 45.45 |
|---|
| Josh Tonguecaught · Mitchell Santner · Zakary Foulkes 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mitchell Santner · b Zakary Foulkes | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Shoaib Bashirnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 17 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 0 · noballs: 10 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith2 maidens · 0 wides · 4 no-balls | 23.0 | 2 | 91 | 4 | 3.96 | 0 | 4 |
 William O’Rourke6 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 20.0 | 6 | 53 | 3 | 2.65 | 0 | 1 |
 Blair Tickner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 59 | 0 | 5.90 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Sears1 maidens · 0 wides · 5 no-balls | 17.0 | 1 | 73 | 0 | 4.29 | 0 | 5 |
| Zakary Foulkes2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 15.2 | 2 | 35 | 3 | 2.28 | 0 | 0 |
1-8 (Emilio Gay, 1.5) · 2-187 (Ben Duckett, 31.2) · 3-224 (Joe Root, 46.2) · 4-224 (Jacob Bethell, 47.1) · 5-234 (Jamie Smith, 50.5) · 6-290 (Ben Stokes, 60.4) · 7-322 (Harry Brook, 72.3) · 8-350 (Jofra Archer, 84.3) · 9-354 (Gus Atkinson, 87.3) · 10-354 (Josh Tongue, 88.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 8/1 |
| 3 | 4 | 12/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 16/1 |
| 5 | 10 | 26/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 31/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 36/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 42/1 |
| 9 | 6 | 48/1 |
| 10 | 0 | 48/1 |
| 11 | 8 | 56/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 60/1 |
| 13 | 11 | 71/1 |
| 14 | 2 | 73/1 |
| 15 | 1 | 74/1 |
| 16 | 8 | 82/1 |
| 17 | 9 | 91/1 |
| 18 | 10 | 101/1 |
| 19 | 8 | 109/1 |
| 20 | 6 | 115/1 |
| 21 | 10 | 125/1 |
| 22 | 5 | 130/1 |
| 23 | 11 | 141/1 |
| 24 | 8 | 149/1 |
| 25 | 4 | 153/1 |
| 26 | 8 | 161/1 |
| 27 | 3 | 164/1 |
| 28 | 1 | 165/1 |
| 29 | 9 | 174/1 |
| 30 | 6 | 180/1 |
| 31 | 3 | 183/1 |
| 32 | 4 | 187/2 |
| 33 | 1 | 188/2 |
| 34 | 3 | 191/2 |
| 35 | 0 | 191/2 |
| 36 | 4 | 195/2 |
| 37 | 12 | 207/2 |
| 38 | 0 | 207/2 |
| 39 | 0 | 207/2 |
| 40 | 3 | 210/2 |
| 41 | 2 | 212/2 |
| 42 | 0 | 212/2 |
| 43 | 5 | 217/2 |
| 44 | 5 | 222/2 |
| 45 | 1 | 223/2 |
| 46 | 1 | 224/2 |
| 47 | 0 | 224/3 |
| 48 | 2 | 226/4 |
| 49 | 2 | 228/4 |
| 50 | 1 | 229/4 |
| 51 | 5 | 234/5 |
| 52 | 1 | 235/5 |
| 53 | 11 | 246/5 |
| 54 | 6 | 252/5 |
| 55 | 9 | 261/5 |
| 56 | 6 | 267/5 |
| 57 | 1 | 268/5 |
| 58 | 4 | 272/5 |
| 59 | 8 | 280/5 |
| 60 | 8 | 288/5 |
| 61 | 2 | 290/6 |
| 62 | 3 | 293/6 |
| 63 | 3 | 296/6 |
| 64 | 5 | 301/6 |
| 65 | 0 | 301/6 |
| 66 | 2 | 303/6 |
| 67 | 6 | 309/6 |
| 68 | 5 | 314/6 |
| 69 | 1 | 315/6 |
| 70 | 1 | 316/6 |
| 71 | 3 | 319/6 |
| 72 | 1 | 320/6 |
| 73 | 2 | 322/7 |
| 74 | 1 | 323/7 |
| 75 | 4 | 327/7 |
| 76 | 6 | 333/7 |
| 77 | 2 | 335/7 |
| 78 | 1 | 336/7 |
| 79 | 2 | 338/7 |
| 80 | 4 | 342/7 |
| 81 | 3 | 345/7 |
| 82 | 2 | 347/7 |
| 83 | 1 | 348/7 |
| 84 | 0 | 348/7 |
| 85 | 2 | 350/8 |
| 86 | 2 | 352/8 |
| 87 | 2 | 354/8 |
| 88 | 0 | 354/9 |
| 89 | 0 | 354/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Ben Stokes: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Blair Tickner: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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