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West Africa Trophy · 2025/26 · Men
13 Dec 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Zambia more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Zambia started on 59%; Zambia batted first.
Zambia's chances ranged from 0% to 74% during the match (Sierra Leone: 26% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Asim (2)bowled · R Coker 3 fours · 3 sixes | bowled · b R Coker | 36 | 36 | 3 | 3 | 100.00 |
| Salman Patellbw · AB Kamara 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b AB Kamara | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| Javid Patelbowled · AB Kamara 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b AB Kamara | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 12.50 |
| JV Chandcaught · R Coker · J Lassayo 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · R Coker · b J Lassayo | 12 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 70.59 |
| Jakir Patelcaught · J Bangura · J Lassayo 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · J Bangura · b J Lassayo | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
| Benson Chamabowled · Mohamed Turay0 fours · 0 sixes |
| bowled · b Mohamed Turay |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Ayaz Dadabhaicaught · L Lamin · A Gbla 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · L Lamin · b A Gbla | 20 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 90.91 |
|---|
| Shahnawaz Patelcaught · Mohamed Turay · AB Kamara 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohamed Turay · b AB Kamara | 29 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 138.10 |
|---|
| M Yambayambanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| L Mutalenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 6 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C Bah1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 4.67 | 0 | 0 |
| A Gbla0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 9.33 | 6 | 0 |
| R Coker1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 29 | 1 | 7.25 | 0 | 0 |
| AB Kamara1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohamed Turay0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
| J Lassayo0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 4.67 | 0 | 1 |
1-25 (Salman Patel, 4.1) · 2-37 (Javid Patel, 6.5) · 3-50 (Muhammad Asim (2), 9.0) · 4-59 (Jakir Patel, 10.5) · 5-60 (Benson Chama, 11.2) · 6-62 (JV Chand, 12.1) · 7-110 (Shahnawaz Patel, 18.2) · 8-112 (Ayaz Dadabhai, 19.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 20 | 20/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 25/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 25/0 |
| 5 | 0 | 25/1 |
| 6 | 10 | 35/1 |
| 7 | 3 | 38/2 |
| 8 | 9 | 47/2 |
| 9 | 3 | 50/3 |
| 10 | 5 | 55/3 |
| 11 | 4 | 59/4 |
| 12 | 3 | 62/5 |
| 13 | 4 | 66/6 |
| 14 | 6 | 72/6 |
| 15 | 6 | 78/6 |
| 16 | 16 | 94/6 |
| 17 | 6 | 100/6 |
| 18 | 9 | 109/6 |
| 19 | 3 | 112/7 |
| 20 | 4 | 116/8 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.