KentversusSurrey

10 Jul 2026 · T20

St Lawrence Ground, Canterbury · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Surrey won by 9 wickets

Kent17.0 overs102/10 Surrey8.5 overs106/1 St Lawrence Ground, Canterbury ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Kent started on 40%; Kent batted first.

Kent’s chance of winning (%) · Surrey is the rest

Kent's chances ranged from 0% to 47% during the match (Surrey: 53% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.5: J Clark to TS Muyeye, TS Muyeye out. Surrey up from 61% to 72%.
6.4: DW Lawrence to Z Crawley, Z Crawley out. Surrey up from 53% to 61%.
7.2: CJ Jordan to DJ Bell-Drummond, DJ Bell-Drummond out. Surrey up from 62% to 71%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.