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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
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Bangladesh tour of Sri Lanka · 2025 · Men
5 Jul 2025 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
Sri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 20%; Bangladesh batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nishan Madushkacaught · Tawhid Hridoy · Tanvir Islam 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tawhid Hridoy · b Tanvir Islam | 17 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 68.00 |
| Pathum Nissankalbw · Tanzim Hasan Sakib 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Tanzim Hasan Sakib | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 62.50 |
| Kusal Mendislbw · Tanvir Islam 9 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Tanvir Islam | 56 | 31 | 9 | 1 | 180.65 |
| Kamindu Mendiscaught · Mehedi Hasan · Tanvir Islam 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mehedi Hasan · b Tanvir Islam | 33 | 51 | 2 | 0 | 64.71 |
| Charith Asalankacaught · Tanvir Islam · Shamim Hossain 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tanvir Islam · b Shamim Hossain | 6 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 35.29 |
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 16% to 99% during the match (Sri Lanka: 1% to 84%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught and bowled · b Mustafizur Rahman |
| 78 |
| 85 |
| 7 |
| 2 |
| 91.76 |
| Dunith Wellalagecaught · Jaker Ali · Tanvir Islam 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jaker Ali · b Tanvir Islam | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10.00 |
|---|
 Wanindu Hasarangacaught · Tanzim Hasan Sakib · Mehedi Hasan1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tanzim Hasan Sakib · b Mehedi Hasan | 13 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 81.25 |
|---|
| Mahesh Theekshanacaught · Rishad Hossain · Tanvir Islam 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rishad Hossain · b Tanvir Islam | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
| Dushmantha Chameerabowled · Tanzim Hasan Sakib 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Tanzim Hasan Sakib | 13 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 41.94 |
|---|
| Asitha Fernandonot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hasan Mahmud0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 6.14 | 1 | 0 |
 Tanzim Hasan Sakib0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.5 | 0 | 34 | 2 | 7.03 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanvir Islam2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 39 | 5 | 3.90 | 0 | 0 |
 Mustafizur Rahman0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 56 | 1 | 7.00 | 2 | 0 |
 Mehedi Hasan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 37 | 1 | 3.70 | 1 | 0 |
 Shamim Hossain1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 22 | 1 | 2.44 | 0 | 0 |
1-6 (Pathum Nissanka, 2.0) · 2-75 (Nishan Madushka, 9.3) · 3-82 (Kusal Mendis, 11.5) · 4-99 (Charith Asalanka, 18.4) · 5-126 (Kamindu Mendis, 25.2) · 6-132 (Dunith Wellalage, 29.4) · 7-156 (Wanindu Hasaranga, 35.2) · 8-170 (Mahesh Theekshana, 38.3) · 9-228 (Janith Liyanage, 47.2) · 10-232 (Dushmantha Chameera, 48.5)
Recorded target: 249 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 6/1 |
| 3 | 4 | 10/1 |
| 4 | 10 | 20/1 |
| 5 | 9 | 29/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 34/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 40/1 |
| 8 | 17 | 57/1 |
| 9 | 17 | 74/1 |
| 10 | 1 | 75/2 |
| 11 | 5 | 80/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 82/3 |
| 13 | 7 | 89/3 |
| 14 | 2 | 91/3 |
| 15 | 0 | 91/3 |
| 16 | 3 | 94/3 |
| 17 | 3 | 97/3 |
| 18 | 1 | 98/3 |
| 19 | 3 | 101/4 |
| 20 | 3 | 104/4 |
| 21 | 2 | 106/4 |
| 22 | 6 | 112/4 |
| 23 | 3 | 115/4 |
| 24 | 6 | 121/4 |
| 25 | 5 | 126/4 |
| 26 | 2 | 128/5 |
| 27 | 1 | 129/5 |
| 28 | 1 | 130/5 |
| 29 | 1 | 131/5 |
| 30 | 2 | 133/6 |
| 31 | 4 | 137/6 |
| 32 | 0 | 137/6 |
| 33 | 7 | 144/6 |
| 34 | 9 | 153/6 |
| 35 | 2 | 155/6 |
| 36 | 1 | 156/7 |
| 37 | 8 | 164/7 |
| 38 | 6 | 170/7 |
| 39 | 0 | 170/8 |
| 40 | 4 | 174/8 |
| 41 | 1 | 175/8 |
| 42 | 9 | 184/8 |
| 43 | 7 | 191/8 |
| 44 | 7 | 198/8 |
| 45 | 14 | 212/8 |
| 46 | 1 | 213/8 |
| 47 | 9 | 222/8 |
| 48 | 8 | 230/9 |
| 49 | 2 | 232/10 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tanzim Hasan Sakib: Cricket Today · CC BY 3.0
Jaker Ali: Press Information Department · Public domain
Hasan Mahmud: Press Information Department · Public domain
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mustafizur Rahman: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shamim Hossain: DelwarHossain · CC BY-SA 4.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mehedi Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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