**Edgbaston**
Photo: Will Noakes
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men

Birmingham BearsversusNorthamptonshire

20 Jun 2024 · T20

Edgbaston · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Birmingham Bears won by 90 runs

Birmingham Bears20.0 overs219/4 Northamptonshire20.0 overs129/9 Edgbaston ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Birmingham Bears started on 60%; Birmingham Bears batted first.

Birmingham Bears’s chance of winning (%) · Northamptonshire is the rest

Birmingham Bears's chances ranged from 56% to 100% during the match (Northamptonshire: 0% to 44%).

Biggest swings

8.4: RS Bopara to EG Barnard, EG Barnard out. Northamptonshire up from 18% to 24%.
9.6: Sikandar Raza to AL Davies, AL Davies out. Northamptonshire up from 22% to 28%.
2nd inns 1.1: RJ Gleeson to DJ Willey, DJ Willey out. Birmingham Bears up from 85% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Birmingham Bears219/4 Northamptonshire129/9

Innings 1