New ZealandversusSouth Africa

25 Mar 2026 · T20

Hagley Oval, Christchurch · Venue photograph

Recorded result

New Zealand won by 92 runs

New Zealand20.0 overs194/6 South Africa20.0 overs102/9 Hagley Oval, Christchurch ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

New Zealand more likely to win

74%New Zealand26%South Africa

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, New Zealand rate stronger than South Africa (1,636 vs 1,546 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, New Zealand won 7 and South Africa won 3
New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

New Zealand started on 72%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand’s chance of winning (%) · South Africa is the rest

New Zealand's chances ranged from 64% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 36%).

Biggest swings

1.2: A Khaka to IC Gaze, IC Gaze out. South Africa up from 23% to 31%.
8.1: TS Sekhukhune to GE Plimmer, GE Plimmer out. South Africa up from 23% to 28%.
8.2: TS Sekhukhune to SFM Devine, SFM Devine out. South Africa up from 28% to 34%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

New Zealand194/6 South Africa102/9

Innings 2

South Africa

102/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

South Africa batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Suné Luuscaught · Amelia Kerr · Nensi Patel 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Amelia Kerr · b Nensi Patel	13	11	2	0	118.18
Chloe Tryoncaught · Georgia Plimmer · Lea Tahuhu 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Georgia Plimmer · b Lea Tahuhu	1	2	0	0	50.00
Laura Wolvaardtcaught · Izzy Gaze · Sophie Devine 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Izzy Gaze · b Sophie Devine	9	14	1	0	64.29
Anne Boschcaught · Brooke Halliday · Lea Tahuhu 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Brooke Halliday · b Lea Tahuhu	9	8	2	0	112.50

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Jess Kerr0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	26	0	8.67	1
Lea Tahuhu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	15	3	3.75	1
Nensi Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	1	4.50	0
Sophie Devine0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	8	2	4.00	0
Flora Devonshire0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	19	1	6.33	0
Amelia Kerr0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	6	2	2.00	1
Maddy Green0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	3	0	3.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	3	12/1
3	6	18/1
4	3	21/2
5	9	30/3
6	11	41/4
7	7	48/4
8	8	56/4
9	1	57/5
10	11	68/5
11	2	70/6
12	3	73/7
13	3	76/7
14	2	78/7
15	6	84/8
16	4	88/8
17	1	89/9
18	3	92/9
19	6	98/9
20	4	102/9

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