HampshireversusEssex

30 May 2025 · T20

The Rose Bowl, Southampton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Hampshire won by 25 runs

Hampshire20.0 overs215/3 Essex20.0 overs190/7 The Rose Bowl, Southampton ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hampshire started on 49%; Hampshire batted first.

Hampshire’s chance of winning (%) · Essex is the rest

Hampshire's chances ranged from 50% to 100% during the match (Essex: 0% to 50%).

Biggest swings

0.4: E Gray to EM McCaughan, four by EM McCaughan. Hampshire up from 52% to 56%.
0.6: E Gray to ME Bouchier, four by ME Bouchier. Hampshire up from 56% to 60%.
3.2: Sophia Smale to ME Bouchier, 1 run to ME Bouchier. Hampshire up from 70% to 74%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Essex chose to field
match referees: AJ Swann
umpires: J Jarvis, Surendiran Shanmugam

Match history & source

On 30 May 2025, Hampshire played Essex at The Rose Bowl, Southampton. Recorded result: Hampshire won by 25 runs.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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