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Photo: Dave Morton
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2023/24 · Men
1 Mar 2024 · ODI
Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 71%; Scotland batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Johnsonlbw · Mark Watt 1 fours · 5 sixes | lbw · b Mark Watt | 43 | 28 | 1 | 5 | 153.57 |
| Srimantha Wijeratnecaught · Richie Berrington · Scott Currie 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Richie Berrington · b Scott Currie | 56 | 87 | 4 | 0 | 64.37 |
| Pargat Singhnot out 10 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 87* | 99 | 10 | 1 | 87.88 |
| Navneet Dhaliwalcaught · Brad Currie · Chris Greaves 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Brad Currie · b Chris Greaves | 12 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 60.00 |
| Harsh Thakernot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 10* | 10 | 0 | 1 | 100.00 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 9 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
Scotland's chances ranged from 0% to 79% during the match (Canada: 21% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safyaan Sharif0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 46 | 0 | 5.75 | 4 | 0 |
| Brad Currie1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 3.83 | 2 | 0 |
 Mark Watt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 56 | 1 | 5.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Scott Currie0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 46 | 1 | 6.57 | 2 | 1 |
| Chris Greaves0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.3 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 4.77 | 1 | 0 |
| Michael Leask0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-64 (Aaron Johnson, 9.0) · 2-179 (Srimantha Wijeratne, 32.3) · 3-208 (Navneet Dhaliwal, 38.1)
Recorded target: 216 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 13/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 15/0 |
| 5 | 9 | 24/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 30/0 |
| 7 | 13 | 43/0 |
| 8 | 10 | 53/0 |
| 9 | 11 | 64/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 66/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 69/1 |
| 12 | 3 | 72/1 |
| 13 | 6 | 78/1 |
| 14 | 8 | 86/1 |
| 15 | 4 | 90/1 |
| 16 | 5 | 95/1 |
| 17 | 5 | 100/1 |
| 18 | 3 | 103/1 |
| 19 | 3 | 106/1 |
| 20 | 14 | 120/1 |
| 21 | 2 | 122/1 |
| 22 | 5 | 127/1 |
| 23 | 7 | 134/1 |
| 24 | 6 | 140/1 |
| 25 | 2 | 142/1 |
| 26 | 1 | 143/1 |
| 27 | 4 | 147/1 |
| 28 | 8 | 155/1 |
| 29 | 8 | 163/1 |
| 30 | 3 | 166/1 |
| 31 | 4 | 170/1 |
| 32 | 7 | 177/1 |
| 33 | 2 | 179/2 |
| 34 | 2 | 181/2 |
| 35 | 7 | 188/2 |
| 36 | 8 | 196/2 |
| 37 | 8 | 204/2 |
| 38 | 4 | 208/2 |
| 39 | 2 | 210/3 |
| 40 | 4 | 214/3 |
| 41 | 6 | 220/3 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Andrew Umeed: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
