Melbourne RenegadesversusMelbourne Stars

10 Jan 2026 · T20

Docklands Stadium, Melbourne · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Melbourne Stars won by 8 wickets

Melbourne Renegades20.0 overs166/7 Melbourne Stars15.5 overs170/2 Docklands Stadium, Melbourne ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Melbourne Renegades started on 45%; Melbourne Renegades batted first.

Melbourne Renegades’s chance of winning (%) · Melbourne Stars is the rest

Melbourne Renegades's chances ranged from 0% to 66% during the match (Melbourne Stars: 34% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.6: TK Curran to TL Seifert, TL Seifert out. Melbourne Stars up from 47% to 59%.
8.1: Haris Rauf to J Fraser-McGurk, J Fraser-McGurk out. Melbourne Stars up from 35% to 42%.
12.5: MP Stoinis to CP Jewell, CP Jewell out. Melbourne Stars up from 48% to 55%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.