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Pakistan tour of New Zealand · 2024/25 · Men
29 Mar 2025 · ODI
McLean Park, Napier · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 59%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Abdullah Shafiquecaught · Daryl Mitchell · Michael Bracewell5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Michael Bracewell | 36 | 49 | 5 | 1 | 73.47 |
 Usman Khancaught · Jacob Duffy · Nathan Smith4 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Jacob Duffy · b Nathan Smith | 39 | 33 | 4 | 2 | 118.18 |
 Mohammad Babar Azamcaught · Daryl Mitchell · William O’Rourke5 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Daryl Mitchell · b William O’Rourke | 78 | 83 | 5 | 3 | 93.98 |
 |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 40% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 60%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Mitchell Hay · b Muhammad Abbas |
| 30 |
| 34 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 88.24 |
| Salman Ali Aghacaught · Michael Bracewell · Jacob Duffy 5 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Michael Bracewell · b Jacob Duffy | 58 | 48 | 5 | 2 | 120.83 |
|---|
| Tayyab Tahirrun out · Jacob Duffy · Jacob Duffy 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Jacob Duffy | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Irfan Khanbowled · Jacob Duffy 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jacob Duffy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Naseem Shahcaught · Michael Bracewell · Nathan Smith0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Michael Bracewell · b Nathan Smith | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Haris Raufcaught · Henry Nicholls · Nathan Smith0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Henry Nicholls · b Nathan Smith | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Akif Javedcaught · William O’Rourke · Nathan Smith 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · William O’Rourke · b Nathan Smith | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Mohammad Alinot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 8 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 14 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 William O’Rourke1 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 38 | 1 | 3.80 | 4 | 0 |
 Jacob Duffy0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 57 | 2 | 6.33 | 2 | 0 |
| Nathan Smith0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.1 | 0 | 60 | 4 | 7.35 | 1 | 0 |
| Michael Bracewell0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 60 | 1 | 6.00 | 6 | 0 |
 Muhammad Abbas0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 6.14 | 1 | 0 |
1-83 (Usman Khan, 12.4) · 2-88 (Abdullah Shafique, 15.4) · 3-164 (Mohammad Rizwan, 28.5) · 4-249 (Mohammad Babar Azam, 38.4) · 5-253 (Tayyab Tahir, 39.4) · 6-253 (Irfan Khan, 39.5) · 7-267 (Naseem Shah, 42.2) · 8-269 (Haris Rauf, 43.0) · 9-271 (Salman Ali Agha, 43.4) · 10-271 (Akif Javed, 44.1)
Recorded target: 345 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 17/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 18/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 23/0 |
| 6 | 11 | 34/0 |
| 7 | 10 | 44/0 |
| 8 | 10 | 54/0 |
| 9 | 7 | 61/0 |
| 10 | 3 | 64/0 |
| 11 | 6 | 70/0 |
| 12 | 9 | 79/0 |
| 13 | 4 | 83/1 |
| 14 | 2 | 85/1 |
| 15 | 2 | 87/1 |
| 16 | 1 | 88/2 |
| 17 | 7 | 95/2 |
| 18 | 5 | 100/2 |
| 19 | 4 | 104/2 |
| 20 | 1 | 105/2 |
| 21 | 11 | 116/2 |
| 22 | 8 | 124/2 |
| 23 | 4 | 128/2 |
| 24 | 9 | 137/2 |
| 25 | 6 | 143/2 |
| 26 | 9 | 152/2 |
| 27 | 3 | 155/2 |
| 28 | 6 | 161/2 |
| 29 | 4 | 165/3 |
| 30 | 3 | 168/3 |
| 31 | 3 | 171/3 |
| 32 | 7 | 178/3 |
| 33 | 11 | 189/3 |
| 34 | 4 | 193/3 |
| 35 | 16 | 209/3 |
| 36 | 8 | 217/3 |
| 37 | 21 | 238/3 |
| 38 | 8 | 246/3 |
| 39 | 4 | 250/4 |
| 40 | 3 | 253/6 |
| 41 | 3 | 256/6 |
| 42 | 10 | 266/6 |
| 43 | 3 | 269/8 |
| 44 | 2 | 271/9 |
| 45 | 0 | 271/10 |
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Usman Khan: Pakistan Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Muhammad Abbas: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Abdullah Shafique: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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