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New Zealand tour of West Indies · 2026 · Men
16 Jul 2026 · ODI
Providence Stadium, Guyana · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 27%; West Indies batted first.
West Indies's chances ranged from 0% to 41% during the match (New Zealand: 59% to 100%).
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Nichollsbowled · Vitel Lawes 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Vitel Lawes | 24 | 48 | 3 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Will Youngcaught · Khary Pierre · Vitel Lawes3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Khary Pierre · b Vitel Lawes | 23 | 42 | 3 | 0 | 54.76 |
| Mark Chapmanlbw · Vitel Lawes 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Vitel Lawes | 7 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 41.18 |
| Daryl Mitchellbowled · Khary Pierre 4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Khary Pierre | 28 | 49 | 4 | 0 | 57.14 |
 Tom Lathamnot out2 fours · 0 sixes |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| not out |
| 31* |
| 53 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 58.49 |
| Dean Foxcroftnot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 22* | 28 | 2 | 0 | 78.57 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khary Pierre1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 26 | 1 | 2.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Alzarri Joseph0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 4.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 3.40 | 0 | 0 |
| Vitel Lawes0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 39 | 3 | 3.90 | 0 | 0 |
| Keemo Paul0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Ackeem Auguste0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Keacy Carty0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 0.3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-38 (Henry Nicholls, 11.2) · 2-50 (Mark Chapman, 15.1) · 3-77 (Will Young, 22.0) · 4-89 (Daryl Mitchell, 27.0)
Recorded target: 141 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 11/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 14/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 19/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 21/0 |
| 7 | 3 | 24/0 |
| 8 | 2 | 26/0 |
| 9 | 1 | 27/0 |
| 10 | 9 | 36/0 |
| 11 | 2 | 38/0 |
| 12 | 5 | 43/1 |
| 13 | 1 | 44/1 |
| 14 | 1 | 45/1 |
| 15 | 5 | 50/1 |
| 16 | 1 | 51/2 |
| 17 | 3 | 54/2 |
| 18 | 4 | 58/2 |
| 19 | 1 | 59/2 |
| 20 | 6 | 65/2 |
| 21 | 9 | 74/2 |
| 22 | 3 | 77/3 |
| 23 | 1 | 78/3 |
| 24 | 3 | 81/3 |
| 25 | 0 | 81/3 |
| 26 | 6 | 87/3 |
| 27 | 2 | 89/4 |
| 28 | 9 | 98/4 |
| 29 | 3 | 101/4 |
| 30 | 3 | 104/4 |
| 31 | 2 | 106/4 |
| 32 | 4 | 110/4 |
| 33 | 4 | 114/4 |
| 34 | 3 | 117/4 |
| 35 | 2 | 119/4 |
| 36 | 2 | 121/4 |
| 37 | 4 | 125/4 |
| 38 | 8 | 133/4 |
| 39 | 6 | 139/4 |
| 40 | 2 | 141/4 |
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Shimron Hetmyer: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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