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Photo: Krish Dulal
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
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Nepal Women's T20I Tri-Series · 2024/25 · Women
30 Jan 2025 · T20
Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Netherlands started on 50%; Netherlands batted first.
Netherlands's chances ranged from 37% to 100% during the match (Nepal: 0% to 63%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samjhana Khadkacaught · Robine Rijke · Iris Zwilling 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Robine Rijke · b Iris Zwilling | 9 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 81.82 |
 Sita Rana Magarstumped · Babette de Leede · Eva Lynch3 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Babette de Leede · b Eva Lynch | 28 | 45 | 3 | 0 | 62.22 |
| I Barmacaught · Iris Zwilling · Caroline de Lange 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Iris Zwilling · b Caroline de Lange | 7 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 70.00 |
| K Kunwarrun out · Babette de Leede, Eva Lynch · Silver Siegers 2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Babette de Leede, Eva Lynch | 8 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 114.29 |
 |
| caught · Iris Zwilling · b Eva Lynch |
| 11 |
| 11 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
| Puja Mahatocaught · Hannah Landheer · Frederique Overdijk 2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Hannah Landheer · b Frederique Overdijk | 24 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 171.43 |
|---|
 Kabita Joshistumped · Babette de Leede · Caroline de Lange1 fours · 2 sixes | stumped · Babette de Leede · b Caroline de Lange | 27 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 158.82 |
|---|
 Bindu Rawalnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| AK Yadavnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 9 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iris Zwilling0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 2.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Hannah Landheer0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 8.33 | 3 | 0 |
| Caroline de Lange0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 36 | 2 | 9.00 | 1 | 1 |
| Eva Lynch0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 2 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Silver Siegers0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Frederique Overdijk0 maidens · 4 wides · 1 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 13.00 | 4 | 1 |
1-17 (Samjhana Khadka, 2.4) · 2-32 (I Barma, 5.3) · 3-42 (K Kunwar, 7.4) · 4-55 (Rubina Chhetri, 10.4) · 5-89 (Puja Mahato, 13.3) · 6-113 (Sita Rana Magar, 17.3) · 7-132 (Kabita Joshi, 19.2)
Recorded target: 158 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 12 | 15/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 17/1 |
| 4 | 6 | 23/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 28/1 |
| 6 | 8 | 36/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 41/2 |
| 8 | 2 | 43/3 |
| 9 | 6 | 49/3 |
| 10 | 2 | 51/3 |
| 11 | 9 | 60/4 |
| 12 | 11 | 71/4 |
| 13 | 15 | 86/4 |
| 14 | 13 | 99/5 |
| 15 | 2 | 101/5 |
| 16 | 6 | 107/5 |
| 17 | 4 | 111/5 |
| 18 | 10 | 121/6 |
| 19 | 9 | 130/6 |
| 20 | 7 | 137/7 |
Kabita Joshi: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sita Rana Magar: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rubina Chhetri: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Bindu Rawal: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
