**Trent Bridge**
Photo: Mattbuck
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men

NottinghamshireversusNorthamptonshire

31 May 2024 · T20

Trent Bridge · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Northamptonshire won by 8 wickets

Nottinghamshire19.2 overs154/10 Northamptonshire13.2 overs157/2 Trent Bridge ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nottinghamshire started on 57%; Nottinghamshire batted first.

Nottinghamshire’s chance of winning (%) · Northamptonshire is the rest

Nottinghamshire's chances ranged from 0% to 84% during the match (Northamptonshire: 16% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.3: RA Weatherall to AD Hales, AD Hales out. Northamptonshire up from 39% to 52%.
14.5: SA Zaib to M Montgomery, M Montgomery out. Northamptonshire up from 37% to 46%.
2nd inns 0.5: DY Pennington to R Vasconcelos, R Vasconcelos out. Nottinghamshire up from 30% to 42%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Nottinghamshire154/10 Northamptonshire157/2

Innings 1