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India Women tour of Australia · 2024/25 · Women
8 Dec 2024 · ODI
Allan Border Field, Brisbane · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Australia started on 86%; Australia batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Richa Ghoshbowled · Alana King8 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Alana King | 54 | 72 | 8 | 0 | 75.00 |
 Smriti Mandhanabowled · Kim Garth2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kim Garth | 9 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 112.50 |
| Harleen Deolcaught · Sophie Molineux · Annabel Sutherland 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sophie Molineux · b Annabel Sutherland | 12 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 54.55 |
 Harmanpreet Kaurcaught · Georgia Voll · Megan Schutt3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Georgia Voll · b Megan Schutt | 38 | 42 | 3 |
Australia's chances ranged from 86% to 100% during the match (India: 0% to 14%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 1 |
| 90.48 |
 Jemimah Rodriguescaught · Tahlia McGrath · Sophie Molineux5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tahlia McGrath · b Sophie Molineux | 43 | 39 | 5 | 0 | 110.26 |
|---|
 Deepti Sharmacaught · Beth Mooney · Ashleigh Gardner1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Beth Mooney · b Ashleigh Gardner | 10 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 71.43 |
|---|
 Minnu Maninot out4 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 46* | 45 | 4 | 0 | 102.22 |
|---|
| Saima Thakorcaught · Ashleigh Gardner · Annabel Sutherland 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ashleigh Gardner · b Annabel Sutherland | 7 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 58.33 |
|---|
 Renuka Singhbowled · Annabel Sutherland0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Annabel Sutherland | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Priya Mishracaught · Beth Mooney · Annabel Sutherland 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Beth Mooney · b Annabel Sutherland | 5 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 35.71 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 18 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Megan Schutt0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 5.00 | 2 | 0 |
 Kim Garth0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 4.38 | 2 | 0 |
 Annabel Sutherland0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.5 | 0 | 39 | 4 | 4.42 | 1 | 0 |
 Ashleigh Gardner0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 47 | 1 | 5.88 | 3 | 0 |
 Sophie Molineux0 maidens · 8 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 44 | 1 | 7.33 | 8 | 0 |
 Tahlia McGrath0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 6.33 | 2 | 1 |
 Alana King0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 6.25 | 0 | 0 |
1-16 (Smriti Mandhana, 3.2) · 2-45 (Harleen Deol, 10.4) · 3-111 (Richa Ghosh, 22.0) · 4-148 (Harmanpreet Kaur, 27.2) · 5-161 (Deepti Sharma, 30.4) · 6-184 (Jemimah Rodrigues, 35.0) · 7-205 (Saima Thakor, 39.0) · 8-215 (Renuka Singh, 40.1) · 9-249 (Priya Mishra, 44.5)
Absent hurt: PS Punia
Recorded target: 372 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 15/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 22/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 24/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 30/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 35/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 39/1 |
| 9 | 1 | 40/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 45/1 |
| 11 | 6 | 51/2 |
| 12 | 7 | 58/2 |
| 13 | 3 | 61/2 |
| 14 | 7 | 68/2 |
| 15 | 5 | 73/2 |
| 16 | 6 | 79/2 |
| 17 | 5 | 84/2 |
| 18 | 4 | 88/2 |
| 19 | 9 | 97/2 |
| 20 | 2 | 99/2 |
| 21 | 5 | 104/2 |
| 22 | 7 | 111/3 |
| 23 | 8 | 119/3 |
| 24 | 8 | 127/3 |
| 25 | 8 | 135/3 |
| 26 | 8 | 143/3 |
| 27 | 5 | 148/3 |
| 28 | 1 | 149/4 |
| 29 | 3 | 152/4 |
| 30 | 7 | 159/4 |
| 31 | 7 | 166/5 |
| 32 | 8 | 174/5 |
| 33 | 4 | 178/5 |
| 34 | 2 | 180/5 |
| 35 | 4 | 184/6 |
| 36 | 3 | 187/6 |
| 37 | 11 | 198/6 |
| 38 | 6 | 204/6 |
| 39 | 1 | 205/7 |
| 40 | 10 | 215/7 |
| 41 | 2 | 217/8 |
| 42 | 3 | 220/8 |
| 43 | 4 | 224/8 |
| 44 | 15 | 239/8 |
| 45 | 10 | 249/9 |
Deepti Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tahlia McGrath: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Renuka Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Ellyse Perry: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade · CC BY 4.0
Richa Ghosh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Jemimah Rodrigues: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Sophie Molineux: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Minnu Mani: Davidjose365 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Megan Schutt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ashleigh Gardner: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Beth Mooney: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harmanpreet Kaur: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kim Garth: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Annabel Sutherland: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Smriti Mandhana: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Georgia Voll: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alana King: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Phoebe Litchfield: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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