JapanversusCook Islands

Japan more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Japan rate stronger than Cook Islands (1,540 vs 1,369 on our results rating)
• In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Japan won 2 and Cook Islands won 0
• Japan are playing at home in Japan

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Japan started on 82%; Japan batted first.

Japan's chances ranged from 65% to 100% during the match (Cook Islands: 0% to 35%).

Biggest swings

1. 6.1: A Parima to K Kadowaki-Fleming, four by K Kadowaki-Fleming. Japan up from 65% to 72%.
2. 2nd inns 1.2: Abdul Samad to HB Dickson, HB Dickson out. Japan up from 70% to 78%.
3. 2nd inns 5.4: B Ito-Davis to T Parima, T Parima out. Japan up from 85% to 94%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.