Papua New GuineaversusSouth Korea

Papua New Guinea more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Papua New Guinea rate stronger than South Korea (1,476 vs 1,312 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Papua New Guinea started on 72%; Papua New Guinea batted first.

Papua New Guinea's chances ranged from 73% to 100% during the match (South Korea: 0% to 28%).

Biggest swings

1. 0.2: CV Ranasinghe to S Bau, four by S Bau. Papua New Guinea up from 73% to 76%.
2. 1.5: Muhammad Nadeem to TP Ura, six by TP Ura. Papua New Guinea up from 78% to 82%.
3. 2nd inns 3.1: Aue Oru to BI Dilruksha, BI Dilruksha out. Papua New Guinea up from 89% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.