Hobart HurricanesversusMelbourne Renegades

19 Dec 2024 · T20

Kardinia Park, South Geelong, Victoria · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Melbourne Renegades won by 6 wickets

Hobart Hurricanes12.4 overs74/10 Melbourne Renegades9.0 overs78/4 Kardinia Park, South Geelong, Victoria ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hobart Hurricanes started on 52%; Hobart Hurricanes batted first.

Hobart Hurricanes’s chance of winning (%) · Melbourne Renegades is the rest

Hobart Hurricanes's chances ranged from 0% to 62% during the match (Melbourne Renegades: 38% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.1: TS Rogers to MJ Owen, MJ Owen out. Melbourne Renegades up from 50% to 62%.
4.3: F O'Neill to Nikhil Chaudhary, Nikhil Chaudhary out. Melbourne Renegades up from 67% to 81%.
4.5: F O'Neill to TH David, TH David out. Melbourne Renegades up from 80% to 92%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Hobart Hurricanes74/10 Melbourne Renegades78/4

Innings 1