AustraliaversusIndia

19 Feb 2026 · T20

Manuka Oval, Canberra · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 19 runs

Australia20.0 overs163/5 India20.0 overs144/9 Manuka Oval, Canberra ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

62%Australia38%India

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 7 and India won 3
Australia are playing at home in Australia
On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Australia (1,718 vs 1,710 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Australia started on 58%; Australia batted first.

Australia’s chance of winning (%) · India is the rest

Australia's chances ranged from 33% to 100% during the match (India: 0% to 67%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 6.4: S Molineux to Shafali Verma, Shafali Verma out. Australia up from 34% to 47%.
2nd inns 8.2: A Gardner to JI Rodrigues, JI Rodrigues out. Australia up from 45% to 57%.
2nd inns 16.5: KJ Garth to H Kaur, H Kaur out. Australia up from 54% to 68%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Australia163/5 India144/9

Innings 2

India

144/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Shafali Vermalbw · Sophie Molineux 5 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Sophie Molineux	29	23	5	0	126.09
Smriti Mandhanacaught · Beth Mooney · Kim Garth 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Beth Mooney · b Kim Garth	31	24	4	0	129.17
Jemimah Rodriguescaught · Annabel Sutherland · Ashleigh Gardner 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Annabel Sutherland · b Ashleigh Gardner	4	6	0	0	66.67
Harmanpreet Kaur

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Ashleigh Gardner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	3	5.50	0
Darcie Brown0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	29	0	9.67	2
Nicola Carey0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	8	0	8.00	1
Kim Garth0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	16	2	5.33	1
Annabel Sutherland0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	2	4.50	0
Sophie Molineux0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	37	2	9.25	0
Georgia Wareham0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	11	0	11.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	9	18/0
3	8	26/0
4	6	32/0
5	14	46/0
6	8	54/0
7	5	59/1
8	6	65/1
9	3	68/2
10	3	71/3
11	11	82/3
12	8	90/3
13	8	98/3
14	7	105/3
15	3	108/3
16	12	120/3
17	7	127/4
18	3	130/6
19	2	132/8
20	12	144/9

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